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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Moreirense

T U T U T

2–1

Full-time

Guimaraes

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,0

3,2

Scored

0,5

1,8

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 29%

50%

Points per game

0,6

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

43%

64%

Both score Ø 47%

43%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,9

Scored

0,6

1,3

Conceded

1,6

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

35% Possession 65%

10 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 8

2 Offside 1

20 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Moreirense 18. · Guimaraes 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	12	3	0	+23	39
2	Porto	14	11	3	0	+31	36
3	Benfica	15	11	3	1	+27	36
4	Sp Braga	15	10	1	4	+16	31
5	Maritimo	14	8	3	3	+5	27
6	Rio Ave	15	7	3	5	+5	24
7	Guimaraes	14	7	2	5	-4	23
8	Boavista	15	6	2	7	-2	20
9	Chaves	15	5	4	6	-3	19
10	Belenenses	15	5	2	8	-8	17
11	Portimonense	15	4	4	7	-4	16
12	Tondela	15	4	3	8	-8	15
13	Feirense	15	4	2	9	-7	14
14	Aves	15	3	4	8	-9	13
15	Pacos Ferreira	15	3	4	8	-13	13
16	Estoril	15	3	2	10	-19	11
17	Vitoria Setubal	15	2	4	9	-16	10
18	Moreirense	14	1	5	8	-14	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	7	7	0	0	+19	21
2	Sp Braga	8	7	0	1	+17	21
3	Sp Lisbon	8	6	2	0	+11	20
4	Maritimo	8	6	2	0	+7	20
5	Porto	7	6	1	0	+20	19
6	Belenenses	7	4	2	1	+5	14
7	Portimonense	7	4	1	2	+5	13
8	Rio Ave	8	4	1	3	+2	13
9	Guimaraes	7	4	1	2	-3	13
10	Boavista	7	4	0	3	-2	12
11	Pacos Ferreira	7	3	2	2	+1	11
12	Feirense	8	3	1	4	-3	10
13	Chaves	7	2	3	2	+2	9
14	Vitoria Setubal	8	2	3	3	-3	9
15	Estoril	7	2	1	4	-5	7
16	Tondela	8	2	1	5	-6	7
17	Aves	8	1	2	5	-8	5
18	Moreirense	6	0	4	2	-4	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+12	19
2	Porto	7	5	2	0	+11	17
3	Benfica	8	4	3	1	+8	15
4	Rio Ave	7	3	2	2	+3	11
5	Sp Braga	7	3	1	3	-1	10
6	Guimaraes	7	3	1	3	-1	10
7	Chaves	8	3	1	4	-5	10
8	Boavista	8	2	2	4	+0	8
9	Aves	7	2	2	3	-1	8
10	Tondela	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Maritimo	6	2	1	3	-2	7
12	Feirense	7	1	1	5	-4	4
13	Moreirense	8	1	1	6	-10	4
14	Estoril	8	1	1	6	-14	4
15	Portimonense	8	0	3	5	-9	3
16	Belenenses	8	1	0	7	-13	3
17	Pacos Ferreira	8	0	2	6	-14	2
18	Vitoria Setubal	7	0	1	6	-13	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.