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Primeira Liga

Referee: Antonio Jorge Ferreira Goncalves

Guimaraes

S U T T U

1–0

Full-time

Moreirense

S U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,5

2,5

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 34%

45%

23%

Points per game

1,6

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

41%

50%

Both score Ø 48%

45%

50%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

1,1

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

56% Possession 44%

10 Shots 14

1 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 8

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

6 Corners 9

0 Offside 1

23 Free kicks against 30

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Guimaraes 5. · Moreirense 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	22	17	3	2	+36	54
2	Porto	22	16	5	1	+34	53
3	Sp Lisbon	22	13	5	4	+16	44
4	Sp Braga	22	11	5	6	+13	38
5	Guimaraes	22	10	6	6	+5	36
6	Maritimo	22	9	6	7	+2	33
7	Chaves	22	7	11	4	+4	32
8	Boavista	22	7	8	7	+0	29
9	Vitoria Setubal	22	8	5	9	+0	29
10	Rio Ave	22	8	4	10	-4	28
11	Arouca	22	8	3	11	-9	27
12	Belenenses	22	6	8	8	-5	26
13	Feirense	22	7	4	11	-17	25
14	Pacos Ferreira	22	6	5	11	-11	23
15	Estoril	22	5	5	12	-10	20
16	Moreirense	22	5	4	13	-14	19
17	Nacional	22	3	6	13	-17	15
18	Tondela	22	3	5	14	-23	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	12	11	1	0	+22	34
2	Benfica	11	9	2	0	+25	29
3	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	+16	28
4	Sp Braga	12	8	2	2	+14	26
5	Maritimo	11	6	3	2	+6	21
6	Chaves	12	5	6	1	+6	21
7	Vitoria Setubal	11	6	2	3	+6	20
8	Pacos Ferreira	11	5	4	2	+3	19
9	Rio Ave	11	5	2	4	+0	17
10	Arouca	11	5	1	5	+0	16
11	Belenenses	11	3	5	3	-1	14
12	Feirense	12	4	2	6	-9	14
13	Guimaraes	10	3	4	3	+0	13
14	Boavista	10	3	3	4	+1	12
15	Tondela	10	3	2	5	-2	11
16	Moreirense	11	2	4	5	-4	10
17	Estoril	10	3	1	6	-4	10
18	Nacional	11	2	4	5	-7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	11	8	1	2	+11	25
2	Guimaraes	12	7	2	3	+5	23
3	Porto	10	5	4	1	+12	19
4	Boavista	12	4	5	3	-1	17
5	Sp Lisbon	11	4	4	3	+0	16
6	Sp Braga	10	3	3	4	-1	12
7	Belenenses	11	3	3	5	-4	12
8	Maritimo	11	3	3	5	-4	12
9	Chaves	10	2	5	3	-2	11
10	Rio Ave	11	3	2	6	-4	11
11	Feirense	10	3	2	5	-8	11
12	Arouca	11	3	2	6	-9	11
13	Estoril	12	2	4	6	-6	10
14	Vitoria Setubal	11	2	3	6	-6	9
15	Moreirense	11	3	0	8	-10	9
16	Nacional	11	1	2	8	-10	5
17	Pacos Ferreira	11	1	1	9	-14	4
18	Tondela	12	0	3	9	-21	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.