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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Miguel Rodrigues Ferreira

Porto

S S S S S

5–2

Full-time

Portimonense

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Portimonense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

2,3

1,2

Conceded

0,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+2,2

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

2,3

1,2

Conceded

0,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+2,2

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

64% Possession 36%

19 Shots 12

9 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 4

3 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 1. · Portimonense 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	6	6	0	0	+13	18
2	Sp Lisbon	6	6	0	0	+12	18
3	Maritimo	6	5	0	1	+4	15
4	Benfica	6	4	1	1	+8	13
5	Rio Ave	6	3	1	2	+2	10
6	Sp Braga	6	3	0	3	-1	9
7	Feirense	6	2	2	2	+1	8
8	Belenenses	6	2	1	3	-5	7
9	Guimaraes	6	2	1	3	-7	7
10	Vitoria Setubal	6	1	3	2	+0	6
11	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	3	2	-1	6
12	Boavista	6	2	0	4	-2	6
13	Portimonense	6	2	0	4	-3	6
14	Estoril	6	2	0	4	-4	6
15	Tondela	6	1	2	3	-1	5
16	Moreirense	6	1	2	3	-7	5
17	Chaves	6	1	1	4	-4	4
18	Aves	6	1	1	4	-5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Maritimo	4	4	0	0	+4	12
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+10	9
3	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+8	9
4	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+4	9
5	Rio Ave	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	Belenenses	3	2	1	0	+2	7
7	Portimonense	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Boavista	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Sp Braga	3	2	0	1	+1	6
10	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	-3	6
11	Vitoria Setubal	3	1	2	0	+2	5
12	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	2	0	+1	5
13	Feirense	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Estoril	2	1	0	1	+1	3
15	Chaves	3	1	0	2	+0	3
16	Aves	3	1	0	2	-3	3
17	Tondela	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+3	9
3	Tondela	3	1	1	1	+1	4
4	Feirense	3	1	1	1	+1	4
5	Benfica	3	1	1	1	+0	4
6	Moreirense	4	1	1	2	-4	4
7	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Sp Braga	3	1	0	2	-2	3
10	Estoril	4	1	0	3	-5	3
11	Aves	3	0	1	2	-2	1
12	Pacos Ferreira	3	0	1	2	-2	1
13	Vitoria Setubal	3	0	1	2	-2	1
14	Chaves	3	0	1	2	-4	1
15	Guimaraes	3	0	1	2	-4	1
16	Boavista	3	0	0	3	-3	0
17	Portimonense	3	0	0	3	-4	0
18	Belenenses	3	0	0	3	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.