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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hugo Miguel

Belenenses

S T S U U

1–1

Full-time

Guimaraes

U S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,3

1,5

Scored

0,7

0,3

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 39%

29%

48%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 31%

19%

43%

Both score Ø 41%

38%

43%

Average goals

1,6

2,5

Scored

0,7

1,4

Conceded

0,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

47% Possession 53%

13 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 10

1 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 12. · Guimaraes 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	22	16	5	1	+34	53
2	Benfica	21	16	3	2	+35	51
3	Sp Lisbon	22	13	5	4	+16	44
4	Sp Braga	21	11	5	5	+14	38
5	Guimaraes	21	10	5	6	+5	35
6	Chaves	22	7	11	4	+4	32
7	Maritimo	21	9	5	7	+2	32
8	Boavista	22	7	8	7	+0	29
9	Vitoria Setubal	22	8	5	9	+0	29
10	Rio Ave	22	8	4	10	-4	28
11	Arouca	22	8	3	11	-9	27
12	Belenenses	21	6	7	8	-5	25
13	Feirense	22	7	4	11	-17	25
14	Pacos Ferreira	22	6	5	11	-11	23
15	Estoril	22	5	5	12	-10	20
16	Moreirense	22	5	4	13	-14	19
17	Nacional	21	3	5	13	-17	14
18	Tondela	22	3	5	14	-23	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	12	11	1	0	+22	34
2	Benfica	11	9	2	0	+25	29
3	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	+16	28
4	Sp Braga	11	8	2	1	+15	26
5	Chaves	12	5	6	1	+6	21
6	Maritimo	10	6	2	2	+6	20
7	Vitoria Setubal	11	6	2	3	+6	20
8	Pacos Ferreira	11	5	4	2	+3	19
9	Rio Ave	11	5	2	4	+0	17
10	Arouca	11	5	1	5	+0	16
11	Feirense	12	4	2	6	-9	14
12	Guimaraes	10	3	4	3	+0	13
13	Belenenses	10	3	4	3	-1	13
14	Boavista	10	3	3	4	+1	12
15	Tondela	10	3	2	5	-2	11
16	Moreirense	11	2	4	5	-4	10
17	Estoril	10	3	1	6	-4	10
18	Nacional	11	2	4	5	-7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	10	7	1	2	+10	22
2	Guimaraes	11	7	1	3	+5	22
3	Porto	10	5	4	1	+12	19
4	Boavista	12	4	5	3	-1	17
5	Sp Lisbon	11	4	4	3	+0	16
6	Sp Braga	10	3	3	4	-1	12
7	Belenenses	11	3	3	5	-4	12
8	Maritimo	11	3	3	5	-4	12
9	Chaves	10	2	5	3	-2	11
10	Rio Ave	11	3	2	6	-4	11
11	Feirense	10	3	2	5	-8	11
12	Arouca	11	3	2	6	-9	11
13	Estoril	12	2	4	6	-6	10
14	Vitoria Setubal	11	2	3	6	-6	9
15	Moreirense	11	3	0	8	-10	9
16	Nacional	10	1	1	8	-10	4
17	Pacos Ferreira	11	1	1	9	-14	4
18	Tondela	12	0	3	9	-21	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.