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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Oliveira

Maritimo

S T T S S

3–1

Full-time

Pacos Ferreira

S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Maritimo Pacos Ferreira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,7

Scored

1,0

0,5

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 35%

44%

25%

Points per game

1,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 29%

13%

44%

Both score Ø 35%

19%

50%

Average goals

1,6

2,4

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

46% Possession 54%

10 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 21

3 Yellow cards 7

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Maritimo 8. · Pacos Ferreira 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	17	13	3	1	+26	42
2	Porto	16	10	5	1	+21	35
3	Sp Lisbon	17	10	4	3	+13	34
4	Sp Braga	16	10	3	3	+14	33
5	Guimaraes	17	9	4	4	+8	31
6	Chaves	17	5	9	3	+2	24
7	Rio Ave	16	7	3	6	+0	24
8	Maritimo	16	7	2	7	-1	23
9	Arouca	17	7	2	8	-4	23
10	Vitoria Setubal	17	6	4	7	+0	22
11	Boavista	17	5	6	6	-1	21
12	Belenenses	16	4	5	7	-6	17
13	Pacos Ferreira	16	4	5	7	-7	17
14	Estoril	17	4	3	10	-9	15
15	Feirense	17	4	3	10	-19	15
16	Moreirense	16	4	2	10	-11	14
17	Nacional	17	3	3	11	-12	12
18	Tondela	16	2	4	10	-14	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	8	7	1	0	+14	22
2	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	+13	22
3	Porto	8	7	1	0	+12	22
4	Benfica	8	6	2	0	+15	20
5	Vitoria Setubal	9	5	1	3	+5	16
6	Chaves	9	3	5	1	+2	14
7	Maritimo	7	4	1	2	+3	13
8	Pacos Ferreira	8	3	4	1	+2	13
9	Arouca	9	4	1	4	+0	13
10	Rio Ave	9	4	1	4	-1	13
11	Guimaraes	8	3	3	2	+2	12
12	Boavista	8	3	2	3	+2	11
13	Belenenses	7	2	3	2	-1	9
14	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-3	8
15	Tondela	8	2	2	4	-3	8
16	Nacional	9	2	2	5	-7	8
17	Feirense	9	2	2	5	-10	8
18	Estoril	8	2	1	5	-4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+11	22
2	Guimaraes	9	6	1	2	+6	19
3	Porto	8	3	4	1	+9	13
4	Sp Lisbon	8	3	3	2	+0	12
5	Rio Ave	7	3	2	2	+1	11
6	Sp Braga	8	3	2	3	+0	11
7	Chaves	8	2	4	2	+0	10
8	Boavista	9	2	4	3	-3	10
9	Arouca	8	3	1	4	-4	10
10	Maritimo	9	3	1	5	-4	10
11	Estoril	9	2	2	5	-5	8
12	Belenenses	9	2	2	5	-5	8
13	Feirense	8	2	1	5	-9	7
14	Vitoria Setubal	8	1	3	4	-5	6
15	Moreirense	8	2	0	6	-8	6
16	Nacional	8	1	1	6	-5	4
17	Pacos Ferreira	8	1	1	6	-9	4
18	Tondela	8	0	2	6	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.