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Championship

Referee: Geoff Eltringham

Aston Villa

S S U S U

3–1

Full-time

Cardiff

U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,2

This season — Championship · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 27%

24%

29%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

29%

53%

Both score Ø 59%

65%

53%

Average goals

2,1

2,6

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

57% Possession 43%

11 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 6

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 21

3 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Aston Villa 14. · Cardiff 21. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	17	13	1	3	+23	40
2	Brighton	17	10	5	2	+16	35
3	Reading	17	9	4	4	+5	31
4	Huddersfield	16	9	2	5	-1	29
5	Birmingham	17	7	7	3	+4	28
6	Norwich	17	8	3	6	+0	27
7	Leeds	17	8	2	7	+0	26
8	Fulham	17	6	7	4	+5	25
9	Bristol City	17	7	3	7	+3	24
10	Preston	17	7	3	7	+2	24
11	Derby	17	6	5	6	+2	23
12	QPR	17	6	5	6	-4	23
13	Brentford	17	6	4	7	+4	22
14	Aston Villa	17	4	10	3	+1	22
15	Nott'm Forest	18	6	4	8	+0	22
16	Barnsley	18	6	4	8	+0	22
17	Sheffield Weds	16	6	4	6	-3	22
18	Ipswich	17	5	6	6	-3	21
19	Wolves	17	4	6	7	-2	18
20	Burton Albion	17	4	6	7	-5	18
21	Cardiff	17	5	3	9	-10	18
22	Blackburn	17	4	4	9	-8	16
23	Wigan	17	3	6	8	-5	15
24	Rotherham	17	1	4	12	-24	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	9	6	2	1	+13	20
2	Huddersfield	7	6	1	0	+6	19
3	Newcastle	8	6	0	2	+9	18
4	Reading	9	5	3	1	+7	18
5	Birmingham	9	5	3	1	+6	18
6	Norwich	8	5	1	2	+5	16
7	Bristol City	8	5	1	2	+3	16
8	Sheffield Weds	8	5	0	3	+1	15
9	Brentford	8	4	2	2	+7	14
10	Aston Villa	8	3	5	0	+5	14
11	Burton Albion	8	4	2	2	+5	14
12	Nott'm Forest	8	4	2	2	+4	14
13	Leeds	9	4	2	3	+1	14
14	Preston	9	4	1	4	+4	13
15	Ipswich	9	3	4	2	+2	13
16	Derby	9	3	3	3	+2	12
17	Barnsley	10	3	3	4	-1	12
18	Blackburn	9	3	3	3	-1	12
19	QPR	9	3	3	3	-5	12
20	Fulham	9	2	4	3	+0	10
21	Cardiff	9	3	1	5	-5	10
22	Wigan	8	2	3	3	-1	9
23	Wolves	8	2	2	4	-3	8
24	Rotherham	8	1	3	4	-4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	9	7	1	1	+14	22
2	Fulham	8	4	3	1	+5	15
3	Brighton	8	4	3	1	+3	15
4	Reading	8	4	1	3	-2	13
5	Leeds	8	4	0	4	-1	12
6	QPR	8	3	2	3	+1	11
7	Derby	8	3	2	3	+0	11
8	Preston	8	3	2	3	-2	11
9	Norwich	9	3	2	4	-5	11
10	Barnsley	8	3	1	4	+1	10
11	Wolves	9	2	4	3	+1	10
12	Birmingham	8	2	4	2	-2	10
13	Huddersfield	9	3	1	5	-7	10
14	Bristol City	9	2	2	5	+0	8
15	Brentford	9	2	2	5	-3	8
16	Nott'm Forest	10	2	2	6	-4	8
17	Aston Villa	9	1	5	3	-4	8
18	Cardiff	8	2	2	4	-5	8
19	Ipswich	8	2	2	4	-5	8
20	Sheffield Weds	8	1	4	3	-4	7
21	Wigan	9	1	3	5	-4	6
22	Blackburn	8	1	1	6	-7	4
23	Burton Albion	9	0	4	5	-10	4
24	Rotherham	9	0	1	8	-20	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.