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Primeira Liga
Referee: Tiago Martins
Maritimo
U T T S T
3–0
Full-time
Guimaraes
T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Maritimo Guimaraes
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
33%
0%
Points per game
1,2
0,3
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,5
2,0
Scored
1,0
0,5
Conceded
1,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-1,0
This season — Primeira Liga · 29/29 matches
Win Ø 30%
31%
28%
Points per game
1,1
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 49%
52%
45%
Both score Ø 57%
59%
55%
Average goals
3,2
2,9
Scored
1,3
1,3
Conceded
1,9
1,6
Goal diff per game
-0,6
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

65% Possession 35%
16 Shots 5
5 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 4
3 Offside 3
17 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Maritimo 12. · Guimaraes 11.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sp Lisbon 30 23 5 2 +45 74
2 Benfica 29 24 1 4 +58 73
3 Porto 29 19 4 6 +28 61
4 Sp Braga 29 14 9 6 +20 51
5 Arouca 30 11 13 6 +5 46
6 Rio Ave 30 13 7 10 +2 46
7 Pacos Ferreira 30 11 9 10 +1 42
8 Estoril 30 12 6 12 -1 42
9 Nacional 29 10 7 12 -5 37
10 Belenenses 30 9 10 11 -20 37
11 Guimaraes 29 8 11 10 -7 35
12 Maritimo 29 9 5 15 -16 32
13 Vitoria Setubal 29 6 11 12 -13 29
14 Moreirense 30 7 8 15 -15 29
15 Boavista 30 6 8 16 -15 26
16 U. Madeira 30 6 8 16 -21 26
17 Academica 30 5 9 16 -23 24
18 Tondela 29 5 5 19 -23 20

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

12. Dec -15 Guimaraes – Maritimo 3–4

Match report

Maritimo Guimaraes
12′
🟥 Dalbert
16′
🔁 Luís Rocha
↦ Licá
João Diogo 🟨
17′
1–0 Fransérgio
27′
29′
🟨 Luis Rocha
2–0 Fransérgio
31′
39′
🔁 Henrique Dourado
↦ B. Saré
44′
🟨 Otávio
Half-time 2–0
Damien Plessis 🟨
65′
3–0 D. Djoussé
66′
71′
🔁 T. Phete
↦ Alexandre Silva
G. Ghazaryan 🔁
↦ Alex Soares
74′
Dyego Sousa 🔁
↦ Edgar Costa
78′
Deyvison 🔁
↦ D. Djoussé
83′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Maritimo

78 R. Salin
5 Dirceu D
2 João Diogo D
91 Patrick D
62 Maurício
23 D. Plessis M
35 Fransérgio M
11 Éber M
7 Alex Soares M
60 D. Djoussé F
12 Edgar Costa F
Bench (7)
10 G. Ghazaryan
9 Dyego Sousa
4 Deyvison
17 G. Nepomuceno
26 Romário
80 A. Haghighi
90 B. Diawara

Guimaraes

56 João Miguel G
2 Pedrão D
76 Bruno Gaspar D
15 João Afonso D
93 Dalbert Henrique D
99 B. Saré M
26 Cafú M
52 Otavinho M
11 Licá F
7 Valente M
45 Alexandre Silva F
Bench (7)
5 Luís Rocha
89 Henrique Dourado
94 T. Phete
1 Douglas Jesus
6 Moreno
24 João Teixeira
88 Franci

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Tiago Martins · 155 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,47 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.