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Serie A

Referee: Luca Banti

Fiorentina

T U U U T

3–1

Full-time

Sassuolo

S T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Sassuolo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,0

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,7

This season — Serie A · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 44%

50%

38%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

47%

38%

Both score Ø 58%

56%

59%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,6

1,3

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

52% Possession 48%

13 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 6

5 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 5. · Sassuolo 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	32	24	4	4	+41	76
2	Napoli	33	21	7	5	+37	70
3	Roma	33	18	11	4	+34	65
4	Inter	33	18	7	8	+14	61
5	Fiorentina	32	16	8	8	+16	56
6	Milan	32	13	10	9	+7	49
7	Sassuolo	32	12	12	8	+5	48
8	Lazio	32	12	9	11	+0	45
9	Chievo	32	12	8	12	-2	44
10	Torino	33	11	9	13	-2	42
11	Genoa	33	11	7	15	-3	40
12	Empoli	32	10	9	13	-7	39
13	Atalanta	33	9	10	14	-7	37
14	Bologna	33	10	7	16	-7	37
15	Sampdoria	32	9	9	14	-3	36
16	Udinese	32	9	7	16	-19	34
17	Carpi	33	7	10	16	-18	31
18	Palermo	32	7	7	18	-28	28
19	Frosinone	32	7	6	19	-31	27
20	Verona	32	3	13	16	-27	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	16	13	3	0	+26	42
2	Juventus	15	12	2	1	+17	38
3	Roma	16	10	5	1	+22	35
4	Inter	17	11	2	4	+11	35
5	Fiorentina	16	10	4	2	+17	34
6	Milan	16	9	4	3	+8	31
7	Genoa	16	9	3	4	+11	30
8	Lazio	16	8	3	5	+7	27
9	Atalanta	17	7	5	5	+5	26
10	Sampdoria	16	7	4	5	+7	25
11	Sassuolo	16	6	7	3	+2	25
12	Torino	17	6	6	5	+3	24
13	Chievo	16	6	6	4	+3	24
14	Frosinone	17	6	4	7	-5	22
15	Empoli	16	5	5	6	+0	20
16	Carpi	17	5	5	7	-2	20
17	Udinese	15	5	3	7	-6	18
18	Bologna	17	4	5	8	-2	17
19	Palermo	16	4	3	9	-9	15
20	Verona	16	2	6	8	-10	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	17	12	2	3	+24	38
2	Roma	17	8	6	3	+12	30
3	Napoli	17	8	4	5	+11	28
4	Inter	16	7	5	4	+3	26
5	Sassuolo	16	6	5	5	+3	23
6	Fiorentina	16	6	4	6	-1	22
7	Chievo	16	6	2	8	-5	20
8	Bologna	16	6	2	8	-5	20
9	Empoli	16	5	4	7	-7	19
10	Milan	16	4	6	6	-1	18
11	Torino	16	5	3	8	-5	18
12	Lazio	16	4	6	6	-7	18
13	Udinese	17	4	4	9	-13	16
14	Palermo	16	3	4	9	-19	13
15	Sampdoria	16	2	5	9	-10	11
16	Atalanta	16	2	5	9	-12	11
17	Carpi	16	2	5	9	-16	11
18	Genoa	17	2	4	11	-14	10
19	Verona	16	1	7	8	-17	10
20	Frosinone	15	1	2	12	-26	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.