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Ligue 1
Referee: Mikael Lesage
Nantes
T U T S T
2–2
Full-time
Lille
S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nantes Lille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,2
2,2
Scored
1,2
0,8
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,5
This season — Ligue 1 · 24/24 matches
Win Ø 38%
46%
29%
Points per game
1,5
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 48%
38%
58%
Both score Ø 38%
42%
33%
Average goals
2,0
2,4
Scored
1,0
0,9
Conceded
1,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,7
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

39% Possession 61%
19 Shots 7
5 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 7
3 Offside 0
8 Free kicks against 12
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Nantes 6. · Lille 18.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 25 21 2 2 +59 65
2 Monaco 25 16 5 4 +34 53
3 Marseille 25 15 7 3 +26 52
4 Lyon 24 14 6 4 +26 48
5 Montpellier 25 9 10 6 +3 37
6 Nantes 24 11 4 9 +0 37
7 Bordeaux 25 10 5 10 -2 35
8 Nice 25 10 4 11 -6 34
9 Guingamp 25 9 6 10 -7 33
10 Rennes 24 9 4 11 -5 31
11 Caen 25 9 4 12 -10 31
12 Dijon 24 9 4 11 -12 31
13 Strasbourg 25 8 6 11 -12 30
14 St Etienne 25 8 6 11 -14 30
15 Toulouse 25 7 5 13 -11 26
16 Amiens 25 7 4 14 -8 25
17 Angers 25 5 10 10 -11 25
18 Lille 24 7 4 13 -16 25
19 Troyes 24 7 3 14 -11 24
20 Metz 25 5 3 17 -23 18

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Nantes Lille
1–0 E. Sala
A. Thomasson
16′
43′
🟨 Yassine Benzia
Half-time 1–0
57′
🔁 N. Pépé
↦ Y. Benzia
67′
L. Mothiba 1–1
Thiago Mendes
2–1 E. Sala
Lucas Lima
71′
A. Kačaniklić 🔁
↦ V. Rongier
79′
81′
🔁 E. Ponce
↦ L. Mothiba
81′
N. Pépé 2–2
Thiago Mendes
S. N'Gom 🔁
↦ J. Iloki
87′
87′
🔁 B. Soumaré
↦ Thiago Mendes
Y. El Ghanassy 🔁
↦ A. Thomasson
92′
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Nantes

4-2-3-1
30 C. Tătărușanu G
6 Lucas Lima D
2 D. Alcibiade D
5 K. Djidji D
15 L. Dubois D
20 Andrei Girotto M
8 A. Thomasson M
7 J. Iloki M
19 A. Touré M
28 V. Rongier M
9 E. Sala F
Bench (7)
11 A. Kačaniklić
27 S. N'Gom
14 Y. El Ghanassy
1 M. Dupé
21 R. Krhin
22 P. Nakoulma
25 E. Kwateng

Coach: C. Ranieri

Lille

4-2-3-1
16 M. Maignan G
15 Edgar Ié D
3 J. Alonso D
34 K. Dabila D
23 Thiago Mendes M
6 I. Amadou M
20 Thiago Maia M
25 F. Ballo D
10 Y. Benzia M
7 A. El Ghazi M
18 L. Mothiba F
Bench (7)
19 N. Pépé
9 E. Ponce
33 B. Soumaré
21 Y. Bissouma
26 F. Bahlouli
27 H. Mendyl
30 K. Koffi

Coach: C. Galtier

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Mikael Lesage · 76 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
18,3 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.