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Bundesliga
Referee: Gunter Perl
Dortmund
S S U S U
4–3
Full-time
Werder Bremen
S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Werder Bremen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 83%
83%
83%
Average goals
3,2
5,0
Scored
1,7
2,7
Conceded
1,5
2,3
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,3
This season — Bundesliga · 33/33 matches
Win Ø 46%
52%
39%
Points per game
1,8
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 69%
61%
76%
Both score Ø 72%
67%
76%
Average goals
3,2
3,6
Scored
2,1
1,8
Conceded
1,1
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,9
-0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

63% Possession 37%
28 Shots 11
11 Shots on target 5
5 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 7
9 Corners 3
2 Offside 2
15 Free kicks against 17
4 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Dortmund 3. · Werder Bremen 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 33 24 7 2 +64 79
2 RB Leipzig 33 20 6 7 +27 66
3 Dortmund 33 17 10 6 +31 61
4 Hoffenheim 33 16 13 4 +27 61
5 Hertha 33 15 4 14 +0 49
6 Freiburg 33 14 6 13 -15 48
7 FC Koln 33 11 13 9 +7 46
8 Werder Bremen 33 13 6 14 -2 45
9 M'gladbach 33 12 8 13 -4 44
10 Schalke 04 33 11 9 13 +5 42
11 Ein Frankfurt 33 11 8 14 -7 41
12 Leverkusen 33 10 8 15 -6 38
13 Mainz 33 10 7 16 -9 37
14 Augsburg 33 9 10 14 -16 37
15 Wolfsburg 33 10 7 16 -17 37
16 Hamburg 33 9 8 16 -29 35
17 FC Ingolstadt 04 33 8 7 18 -21 31
18 Darmstadt 33 7 3 23 -35 24

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Dortmund Werder Bremen
7′
Z. Junuzović 0–1
U. Garcia
Sokratis 🟨
11′
1–1 M. Reus
S. Kagawa
32′
2–1 P. Aubameyang
O. Dembélé
42′
Half-time 2–1
C. Pulisic 🔁
↦ E. Durm
46′
46′
🔁 S. Gnabry
↦ T. Gebre Selassie
46′
F. Bartels 2–2
M. Kruse
58′
🟨 Fin Bartels
Ousmane Dembélé 🟨
61′
Nuri Şahin 🟨
62′
68′
M. Kruse 2–3
Z. Junuzović
G. Castro 🔁
↦ N. Şahin
72′
72′
🔁 P. Bargfrede
↦ F. Grillitsch
3–3 M. Reus
75′
86′
🔁 M. Eggestein
↦ L. Sané
Shinji Kagawa 🟨
87′
88′
🟨 Philipp Bargfrede
4–3 P. Aubameyang
89′
90′
🟨 Miloš Veljković
S. Bender 🔁
↦ O. Dembélé
93′
Full-time 4–3

Line-ups

Dortmund

3-1-4-2
38 R. Bürki G
25 S. Papastathopoulos D
5 Bartra D
13 Raphaël Guerreiro D
37 E. Durm M
28 M. Ginter D
8 N. Şahin M
23 S. Kagawa M
7 O. Dembélé F
17 P. Aubameyang F
11 M. Reus M
Bench (7)
22 C. Pulisic
27 G. Castro
6 S. Bender
29 M. Schmelzer
1 R. Weidenfeller
9 E. Mor
18 S. Rode

Coach: T. Tuchel

Werder Bremen

3-1-4-2
42 F. Wiedwald G
18 N. Moisander D
23 T. Gebre Selassie D
26 L. Sané D
20 U. Garcia D
16 Z. Junuzović M
22 F. Bartels F
6 T. Delaney M
27 F. Grillitsch M
13 M. Veljkovic D
10 M. Kruse F
Bench (6)
29 S. Gnabry
44 P. Bargfrede
35 M. Eggestein
7 F. Kainz
14 C. Pizarro
33 J. Drobný

Coach: A. Nouri

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Gunter Perl · 26 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
15,7 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.