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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Man City

T S U S U

4–0

Full-time

Crystal Palace

S U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Crystal Palace

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,3

1,3

Scored

1,5

0,5

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 50%

57%

43%

Points per game

1,9

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

62%

43%

Both score Ø 48%

52%

43%

Average goals

2,9

2,0

Scored

1,9

1,1

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

52% Possession 48%

17 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

5 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 3. · Crystal Palace 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	21	13	4	4	+16	43
2	Leicester	21	12	7	2	+13	43
3	Man City	21	12	4	5	+18	40
4	Tottenham	22	10	9	3	+20	39
5	West Ham	21	9	8	4	+9	35
6	Man United	21	9	7	5	+7	34
7	Stoke	21	9	5	7	+2	32
8	Crystal Palace	21	9	4	8	+3	31
9	Liverpool	21	8	7	6	-2	31
10	Watford	21	8	5	8	+1	29
11	Everton	21	6	10	5	+7	28
12	Southampton	21	7	6	8	+4	27
13	West Brom	21	7	6	8	-5	27
14	Chelsea	21	6	6	9	-3	24
15	Norwich	21	6	5	10	-11	23
16	Bournemouth	21	5	6	10	-14	21
17	Swansea	21	4	7	10	-11	19
18	Newcastle	21	4	6	11	-16	18
19	Sunderland	22	5	3	14	-18	18
20	Aston Villa	21	2	5	14	-20	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	8	1	2	+17	25
2	Arsenal	10	7	2	1	+10	23
3	Tottenham	12	6	4	2	+13	22
4	Man United	10	5	4	1	+8	19
5	Leicester	10	5	4	1	+3	19
6	Southampton	11	5	2	4	+6	17
7	West Ham	10	4	4	2	+4	16
8	Stoke	10	5	1	4	+3	16
9	Liverpool	10	4	4	2	+0	16
10	Norwich	10	4	3	3	+2	15
11	Chelsea	11	4	3	4	+1	15
12	Watford	11	4	2	5	+1	14
13	Crystal Palace	11	4	2	5	+0	14
14	West Brom	11	4	2	5	-3	14
15	Everton	11	3	4	4	+3	13
16	Swansea	11	3	4	4	-5	13
17	Sunderland	10	3	2	5	+1	11
18	Newcastle	11	2	5	4	+0	11
19	Bournemouth	10	2	4	4	-5	10
20	Aston Villa	10	1	3	6	-6	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	11	7	3	1	+10	24
2	Arsenal	11	6	2	3	+6	20
3	West Ham	11	5	4	2	+5	19
4	Tottenham	10	4	5	1	+7	17
5	Crystal Palace	10	5	2	3	+3	17
6	Stoke	11	4	4	3	-1	16
7	Everton	10	3	6	1	+4	15
8	Man City	10	4	3	3	+1	15
9	Watford	10	4	3	3	+0	15
10	Man United	11	4	3	4	-1	15
11	Liverpool	11	4	3	4	-2	15
12	West Brom	10	3	4	3	-2	13
13	Bournemouth	11	3	2	6	-9	11
14	Southampton	10	2	4	4	-2	10
15	Chelsea	10	2	3	5	-4	9
16	Norwich	11	2	2	7	-13	8
17	Newcastle	10	2	1	7	-16	7
18	Sunderland	12	2	1	9	-19	7
19	Swansea	10	1	3	6	-6	6
20	Aston Villa	11	1	2	8	-14	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.