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Serie A

Referee: Marco Guida

Lazio

S T S S T

4–1

Full-time

Spal

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Spal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,7

0,7

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,3

This season — Serie A · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 50%

60%

40%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

50%

40%

Both score Ø 30%

40%

20%

Average goals

2,5

2,1

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

47% Possession 53%

22 Shots 9

10 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 5. · Spal 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	11	10	1	0	+16	31
2	Inter	11	8	1	2	+15	25
3	Napoli	11	8	1	2	+12	25
4	Milan	10	5	3	2	+6	18
5	Lazio	10	6	0	4	+1	18
6	Fiorentina	11	4	4	3	+8	16
7	Roma	11	4	4	3	+4	16
8	Sampdoria	10	4	3	3	+7	15
9	Sassuolo	10	4	3	3	+1	15
10	Torino	10	3	5	2	+0	14
11	Genoa	11	4	2	5	-8	14
12	Parma	10	4	1	5	-4	13
13	Cagliari	11	3	4	4	-4	13
14	Atalanta	10	3	3	4	+5	12
15	Spal	10	4	0	6	-5	12
16	Udinese	10	2	3	5	-5	9
17	Bologna	10	2	3	5	-6	9
18	Empoli	11	1	3	7	-10	6
19	Frosinone	10	1	2	7	-15	5
20	Chievo	10	0	2	8	-18	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	6	5	1	0	+11	16
2	Juventus	6	5	1	0	+9	16
3	Fiorentina	6	4	2	0	+11	14
4	Inter	6	4	1	1	+8	13
5	Milan	5	4	1	0	+5	13
6	Sassuolo	5	3	1	1	+2	10
7	Genoa	5	3	1	1	+2	10
8	Cagliari	5	2	3	0	+3	9
9	Lazio	5	3	0	2	+1	9
10	Roma	5	2	2	1	+4	8
11	Sampdoria	5	2	2	1	+3	8
12	Atalanta	5	2	1	2	+5	7
13	Parma	5	2	1	2	+0	7
14	Torino	5	2	1	2	-1	7
15	Bologna	5	2	1	2	-1	7
16	Spal	5	2	0	3	-3	6
17	Empoli	5	1	1	3	-2	4
18	Udinese	5	1	1	3	-5	4
19	Frosinone	5	0	2	3	-8	2
20	Chievo	5	0	1	4	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	5	5	0	0	+7	15
2	Inter	5	4	0	1	+7	12
3	Napoli	5	3	0	2	+1	9
4	Lazio	5	3	0	2	+0	9
5	Roma	6	2	2	2	+0	8
6	Sampdoria	5	2	1	2	+4	7
7	Torino	5	1	4	0	+1	7
8	Spal	5	2	0	3	-2	6
9	Parma	5	2	0	3	-4	6
10	Milan	5	1	2	2	+1	5
11	Atalanta	5	1	2	2	+0	5
12	Udinese	5	1	2	2	+0	5
13	Sassuolo	5	1	2	2	-1	5
14	Cagliari	6	1	1	4	-7	4
15	Genoa	6	1	1	4	-10	4
16	Frosinone	5	1	0	4	-7	3
17	Fiorentina	5	0	2	3	-3	2
18	Bologna	5	0	2	3	-5	2
19	Empoli	6	0	2	4	-8	2
20	Chievo	5	0	1	4	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.