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Serie A

Referee: Claudio Gavillucci

Fiorentina

T S T U U

1–0

Full-time

Cagliari

T T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Cagliari

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,2

This season — Serie A · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 37%

41%

33%

Points per game

1,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 63%

59%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,4

Scored

1,6

1,3

Conceded

1,4

2,1

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

68% Possession 32%

26 Shots 12

9 Shots on target 5

9 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 8

8 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 8. · Cagliari 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	28	23	1	4	+39	70
2	Roma	27	19	2	6	+33	59
3	Napoli	27	17	6	4	+32	57
4	Lazio	27	16	5	6	+18	53
5	Atalanta	27	16	4	7	+16	52
6	Inter	27	16	3	8	+18	51
7	Milan	28	15	5	8	+9	50
8	Fiorentina	27	11	9	7	+7	42
9	Sampdoria	28	11	8	9	+2	41
10	Torino	27	10	9	8	+8	39
11	Chievo	27	10	5	12	-8	35
12	Sassuolo	28	9	4	15	-8	31
13	Bologna	28	8	7	13	-16	31
14	Cagliari	27	9	4	14	-21	31
15	Udinese	27	8	6	13	-7	30
16	Genoa	28	7	8	13	-12	29
17	Empoli	27	5	7	15	-24	22
18	Palermo	27	3	6	18	-30	15
19	Crotone	27	3	5	19	-24	14
20	Pescara	27	2	6	19	-32	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	15	15	0	0	+30	45
2	Roma	13	12	0	1	+27	36
3	Napoli	14	9	3	2	+14	30
4	Inter	13	9	2	2	+16	29
5	Lazio	14	9	2	3	+12	29
6	Milan	14	9	2	3	+8	29
7	Torino	13	8	4	1	+15	28
8	Sampdoria	14	8	4	2	+9	28
9	Atalanta	13	9	1	3	+8	28
10	Fiorentina	13	6	7	0	+8	25
11	Cagliari	13	7	2	4	-2	23
12	Chievo	14	5	4	5	-4	19
13	Genoa	14	4	6	4	+4	18
14	Udinese	14	5	3	6	+0	18
15	Bologna	14	5	2	7	-6	17
16	Sassuolo	14	5	1	8	-5	16
17	Empoli	14	4	3	7	-11	15
18	Crotone	14	3	3	8	-7	12
19	Pescara	13	1	4	8	-13	7
20	Palermo	13	1	2	10	-16	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	13	8	3	2	+18	27
2	Juventus	13	8	1	4	+9	25
3	Atalanta	14	7	3	4	+8	24
4	Lazio	13	7	3	3	+6	24
5	Roma	14	7	2	5	+6	23
6	Inter	14	7	1	6	+2	22
7	Milan	14	6	3	5	+1	21
8	Fiorentina	14	5	2	7	-1	17
9	Chievo	13	5	1	7	-4	16
10	Sassuolo	14	4	3	7	-3	15
11	Bologna	14	3	5	6	-10	14
12	Sampdoria	14	3	4	7	-7	13
13	Udinese	13	3	3	7	-7	12
14	Torino	14	2	5	7	-7	11
15	Genoa	14	3	2	9	-16	11
16	Palermo	14	2	4	8	-14	10
17	Cagliari	14	2	2	10	-19	8
18	Empoli	13	1	4	8	-13	7
19	Pescara	14	1	2	11	-19	5
20	Crotone	13	0	2	11	-17	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.