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Bundesliga
Referee: Manuel Gräfe
Hoffenheim
U S T U S
3–0
Full-time
Wolfsburg
U T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Wolfsburg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,3
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 83%
83%
83%
Average goals
3,7
2,5
Scored
1,8
1,0
Conceded
1,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,5
This season — Bundesliga · 25/25 matches
Win Ø 26%
36%
16%
Points per game
1,4
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 48%
52%
44%
Both score Ø 66%
64%
68%
Average goals
3,1
2,4
Scored
1,6
1,1
Conceded
1,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,1
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

46% Possession 54%
16 Shots 6
5 Shots on target 1
6 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
11 Corners 4
0 Offside 5
7 Free kicks against 8
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Hoffenheim 7. · Wolfsburg 15.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 25 20 3 2 +41 63
2 Schalke 04 26 13 7 6 +10 46
3 Dortmund 25 11 9 5 +19 42
4 Ein Frankfurt 25 12 6 7 +6 42
5 Leverkusen 25 11 8 6 +12 41
6 RB Leipzig 25 11 6 8 +4 39
7 Hoffenheim 25 9 8 8 +2 35
8 M'gladbach 25 10 5 10 -4 35
9 Stuttgart 25 10 3 12 -6 33
10 Augsburg 25 8 8 9 +1 32
11 Hannover 25 8 8 9 -3 32
12 Hertha 25 7 10 8 -1 31
13 Freiburg 25 6 11 8 -17 29
14 Werder Bremen 25 6 9 10 -6 27
15 Wolfsburg 25 4 13 8 -5 25
16 Mainz 26 6 7 13 -14 25
17 Hamburg 25 4 6 15 -17 18
18 FC Koln 25 4 5 16 -22 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Hoffenheim Wolfsburg
1–0 N. Schulz
18′
42′
🔁 J. Brekalo
↦ D. Origi
E. Polanski 🔁
↦ D. Geiger
43′
Half-time 1–0
54′
🔁 L. Dimata
↦ J. Brekalo
M. Uth 🔁
↦ A. Kramarić
66′
Eugen Polański 🟨
68′
2–0 S. Gnabry
M. Uth
77′
N. Amiri 🔁
↦ F. Grillitsch
78′
2–1 J. Guilavogui
own goal
80′
82′
🔁 R. Steffen
↦ Y. Mallı
90′
🟨 Jeffrey Bruma
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Hoffenheim

3-1-4-2
1 O. Baumann G
21 B. Hübner D
22 K. Vogt D
3 P. Kadeřábek M
25 K. Akpoguma D
7 L. Rupp M
16 N. Schulz M
11 F. Grillitsch M
32 D. Geiger M
27 A. Kramarić F
29 S. Gnabry M
Bench (7)
8 E. Polanski
19 M. Uth
18 N. Amiri
4 E. Bičakčić
17 S. Zuber
28 Á. Szalai
33 A. Stolz

Coach: J. Nagelsmann

Wolfsburg

4-2-3-1
1 K. Casteels G
3 P. Verhaegh D
5 J. Bruma D
31 R. Knoche D
22 A. Mehmedi M
11 D. Didavi M
23 J. Guilavogui M
10 Y. Mallı M
6 R. Bazoer M
37 E. Rexhbecaj M
14 D. Origi F
Bench (7)
21 J. Brekalo
9 L. Dimata
8 R. Steffen
20 M. Grün
27 M. Arnold
35 G. Itter
39 P. Jaeckel

Coach: B. Labbadia

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Manuel Gräfe · 72 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
16,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,08 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.