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Championship

Referee: Peter Bankes

Cardiff

S S S S S

3–2

Full-time

Birmingham

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

2,7

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,7

2,3

Scored

1,3

0,2

Conceded

0,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-2,0

This season — Championship · 35/36 matches

Win Ø 41%

60%

22%

Points per game

2,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

43%

28%

Both score Ø 38%

43%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,1

Scored

1,5

0,6

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

41% Possession 59%

15 Shots 16

6 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 12

0 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 2. · Birmingham 22. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	35	23	7	5	+34	76
2	Cardiff	35	21	7	7	+24	70
3	Fulham	33	17	10	6	+24	61
4	Derby	34	16	12	6	+22	60
5	Aston Villa	32	17	8	7	+22	59
6	Middlesbrough	34	17	6	11	+17	57
7	Bristol City	36	15	12	9	+11	57
8	Preston	36	14	15	7	+10	57
9	Sheffield United	35	17	4	14	+6	55
10	Brentford	35	14	11	10	+11	53
11	Millwall	36	13	13	10	+6	52
12	Ipswich	35	15	6	14	+3	51
13	Leeds	36	14	7	15	-2	49
14	Norwich	35	12	12	11	-3	48
15	Nott'm Forest	36	13	5	18	-11	44
16	QPR	35	10	10	15	-13	40
17	Sheffield Weds	36	8	13	15	-12	37
18	Reading	35	8	11	16	-9	35
19	Bolton	36	8	11	17	-24	35
20	Hull	35	7	12	16	-7	33
21	Barnsley	35	7	11	17	-15	32
22	Birmingham	36	8	6	22	-31	30
23	Burton Albion	35	7	8	20	-36	29
24	Sunderland	36	5	13	18	-27	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	18	13	3	2	+21	42
2	Wolves	17	12	3	2	+20	39
3	Fulham	17	10	5	2	+19	35
4	Middlesbrough	17	10	3	4	+11	33
5	Aston Villa	15	9	5	1	+16	32
6	Derby	17	9	5	3	+16	32
7	Bristol City	18	9	5	4	+12	32
8	Sheffield United	17	10	2	5	+11	32
9	Millwall	18	8	7	3	+9	31
10	Brentford	17	7	8	2	+13	29
11	QPR	18	8	5	5	+0	29
12	Preston	18	7	7	4	+4	28
13	Ipswich	17	8	3	6	+8	27
14	Leeds	18	7	5	6	+2	26
15	Bolton	18	7	4	7	-3	25
16	Nott'm Forest	18	8	1	9	-5	25
17	Norwich	18	5	8	5	+0	23
18	Hull	18	5	7	6	+7	22
19	Sheffield Weds	18	5	6	7	-3	21
20	Birmingham	18	6	2	10	-10	20
21	Reading	18	3	6	9	-8	15
22	Barnsley	17	3	6	8	-8	15
23	Sunderland	18	2	6	10	-14	12
24	Burton Albion	18	2	3	13	-23	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	18	11	4	3	+14	37
2	Preston	18	7	8	3	+6	29
3	Derby	17	7	7	3	+6	28
4	Cardiff	17	8	4	5	+3	28
5	Aston Villa	17	8	3	6	+6	27
6	Fulham	16	7	5	4	+5	26
7	Bristol City	18	6	7	5	-1	25
8	Norwich	17	7	4	6	-3	25
9	Middlesbrough	17	7	3	7	+6	24
10	Brentford	18	7	3	8	-2	24
11	Ipswich	18	7	3	8	-5	24
12	Leeds	18	7	2	9	-4	23
13	Sheffield United	18	7	2	9	-5	23
14	Millwall	18	5	6	7	-3	21
15	Reading	17	5	5	7	-1	20
16	Burton Albion	17	5	5	7	-13	20
17	Nott'm Forest	18	5	4	9	-6	19
18	Barnsley	18	4	5	9	-7	17
19	Sheffield Weds	18	3	7	8	-9	16
20	Sunderland	18	3	7	8	-13	16
21	QPR	17	2	5	10	-13	11
22	Hull	17	2	5	10	-14	11
23	Birmingham	18	2	4	12	-21	10
24	Bolton	18	1	7	10	-21	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.