Gamealyst.com

← Match Finder

Championship

Referee: Lee Mason

Aston Villa

S U T S T

2–1

Full-time

Derby

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

Unlock with Pro

Already have an account? Log in

Team trends

Aston Villa Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,2

2,0

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,2

This season — Championship · 45/45 matches

Win Ø 46%

44%

47%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

60%

47%

Both score Ø 64%

67%

60%

Average goals

3,1

2,6

Scored

1,7

1,6

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

Unlock with Pro

Already have an account? Log in

🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

Unlock with Pro

Already have an account? Log in

The table before the match Aston Villa 6. · Derby 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	46	27	13	6	+36	94
2	Sheffield United	46	26	11	9	+37	89
3	Leeds	46	24	8	14	+17	80
4	West Brom	46	23	10	13	+24	79
5	Derby	45	21	14	10	+25	77
6	Aston Villa	45	20	15	10	+18	75
7	Middlesbrough	46	20	13	13	+8	73
8	Bristol City	46	19	13	14	+6	70
9	Nott'm Forest	46	17	15	14	+7	66
10	Swansea	46	18	11	17	+3	65
11	Brentford	46	17	13	16	+14	64
12	Sheffield Weds	46	16	16	14	-2	64
13	Hull	46	17	11	18	-2	62
14	Birmingham	46	14	19	13	+6	61
15	Preston	46	16	13	17	+0	61
16	Blackburn	46	16	12	18	-5	60
17	Stoke	46	11	22	13	-7	55
18	Wigan	46	13	13	20	-13	52
19	QPR	46	14	9	23	-18	51
20	Reading	46	10	17	19	-17	47
21	Millwall	46	10	14	22	-16	44
22	Rotherham	46	8	16	22	-31	40
23	Bolton	46	8	8	30	-49	32
24	Ipswich	46	5	16	25	-41	31

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	23	15	4	4	+25	49
2	Norwich	23	15	4	4	+17	49
3	Brentford	23	14	4	5	+27	46
4	Derby	23	13	7	3	+22	46
5	West Brom	23	13	6	4	+24	45
6	Leeds	23	13	4	6	+13	43
7	Nott'm Forest	23	13	4	6	+13	43
8	Swansea	23	12	6	5	+14	42
9	Aston Villa	22	11	8	3	+13	41
10	Wigan	23	11	8	4	+9	41
11	Hull	23	11	6	6	+13	39
12	Sheffield Weds	23	10	8	5	+7	38
13	Blackburn	23	10	7	6	+11	37
14	Middlesbrough	23	10	6	7	+6	36
15	Preston	23	8	10	5	+11	34
16	Stoke	23	8	9	6	+2	33
17	Birmingham	23	7	11	5	+7	32
18	Bristol City	23	8	8	7	+2	32
19	QPR	23	9	3	11	+2	30
20	Millwall	23	7	9	7	-1	30
21	Reading	23	8	6	9	-2	30
22	Rotherham	23	7	8	8	-6	29
23	Ipswich	23	3	11	9	-9	20
24	Bolton	23	4	4	15	-22	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	23	12	9	2	+19	45
2	Sheffield United	23	11	7	5	+12	40
3	Bristol City	23	11	5	7	+4	38
4	Leeds	23	11	4	8	+4	37
5	Middlesbrough	23	10	7	6	+2	37
6	Aston Villa	23	9	7	7	+5	34
7	West Brom	23	10	4	9	+0	34
8	Derby	22	8	7	7	+3	31
9	Birmingham	23	7	8	8	-1	29
10	Preston	23	8	3	12	-11	27
11	Sheffield Weds	23	6	8	9	-9	26
12	Nott'm Forest	23	4	11	8	-6	23
13	Swansea	23	6	5	12	-11	23
14	Hull	23	6	5	12	-15	23
15	Blackburn	23	6	5	12	-16	23
16	Stoke	23	3	13	7	-9	22
17	QPR	23	5	6	12	-20	21
18	Brentford	23	3	9	11	-13	18
19	Reading	23	2	11	10	-15	17
20	Bolton	23	4	4	15	-27	16
21	Millwall	23	3	5	15	-15	14
22	Wigan	23	2	5	16	-22	11
23	Rotherham	23	1	8	14	-25	11
24	Ipswich	23	2	5	16	-32	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.