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Championship

Referee: Tim Robinson

Aston Villa

S S S S S

1–0

Full-time

Millwall

T S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,5

This season — Championship · 40/42 matches

Win Ø 35%

45%

24%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

63%

45%

Both score Ø 63%

68%

57%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,1

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

60% Possession 40%

18 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

12 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 5. · Millwall 21. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	43	25	12	6	+34	87
2	Sheffield United	43	24	10	9	+32	82
3	Leeds	41	23	7	11	+21	76
4	West Brom	41	21	9	11	+24	72
5	Aston Villa	40	18	14	8	+19	68
6	Middlesbrough	43	18	13	12	+9	67
7	Bristol City	42	18	12	12	+9	66
8	Derby	39	17	13	9	+18	64
9	Preston	43	16	12	15	+5	60
10	Hull	43	17	9	17	+1	60
11	Sheffield Weds	43	15	15	13	-3	60
12	Swansea	42	17	8	17	+2	59
13	Nott'm Forest	43	14	15	14	+2	57
14	Birmingham	43	13	17	13	+4	56
15	Blackburn	43	15	11	17	-6	56
16	Brentford	43	14	13	16	+8	55
17	Stoke	43	11	19	13	-7	52
18	QPR	43	13	9	21	-16	48
19	Reading	43	10	15	18	-16	45
20	Wigan	43	11	12	20	-16	45
21	Millwall	42	10	13	19	-13	43
22	Rotherham	43	8	16	19	-27	40
23	Bolton	43	8	8	27	-45	32
24	Ipswich	43	4	16	23	-39	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	22	14	4	4	+23	46
2	Norwich	22	14	4	4	+16	46
3	Leeds	21	13	3	5	+15	42
4	Brentford	21	12	4	5	+22	40
5	Derby	20	11	7	2	+19	40
6	Swansea	21	12	4	5	+14	40
7	West Brom	21	11	6	4	+21	39
8	Hull	21	11	5	5	+16	38
9	Nott'm Forest	21	11	4	6	+9	37
10	Aston Villa	19	9	8	2	+12	35
11	Sheffield Weds	21	9	8	4	+6	35
12	Wigan	21	9	8	4	+6	35
13	Preston	22	8	9	5	+11	33
14	Blackburn	21	9	6	6	+9	33
15	Middlesbrough	22	9	6	7	+5	33
16	Bristol City	22	8	8	6	+4	32
17	Birmingham	22	7	10	5	+7	31
18	Stoke	21	8	7	6	+2	31
19	QPR	22	9	3	10	+3	30
20	Millwall	21	7	8	6	+0	29
21	Rotherham	21	7	8	6	-3	29
22	Reading	21	8	4	9	-2	28
23	Ipswich	21	2	11	8	-9	17
24	Bolton	22	4	4	14	-21	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	21	11	8	2	+18	41
2	Sheffield United	21	10	6	5	+9	36
3	Leeds	20	10	4	6	+6	34
4	Bristol City	20	10	4	6	+5	34
5	Middlesbrough	21	9	7	5	+4	34
6	Aston Villa	21	9	6	6	+7	33
7	West Brom	20	10	3	7	+3	33
8	Preston	21	8	3	10	-6	27
9	Birmingham	21	6	7	8	-3	25
10	Sheffield Weds	22	6	7	9	-9	25
11	Derby	19	6	6	7	-1	24
12	Blackburn	22	6	5	11	-15	23
13	Hull	22	6	4	12	-15	22
14	Stoke	22	3	12	7	-9	21
15	Nott'm Forest	22	3	11	8	-7	20
16	Swansea	21	5	4	12	-12	19
17	QPR	21	4	6	11	-19	18
18	Reading	22	2	11	9	-14	17
19	Bolton	21	4	4	13	-24	16
20	Brentford	22	2	9	11	-14	15
21	Millwall	21	3	5	13	-13	14
22	Rotherham	22	1	8	13	-24	11
23	Ipswich	22	2	5	15	-30	11
24	Wigan	22	2	4	16	-22	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.