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Championship

Referee: Mark Heywood

Leeds

S U S S U

2–2

Full-time

Derby

U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

0,8

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,5

This season — Championship · 23/22 matches

Win Ø 43%

30%

55%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

35%

36%

Both score Ø 47%

52%

41%

Average goals

2,1

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,1

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

42% Possession 58%

12 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 9

0 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leeds 14. · Derby 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	23	15	4	4	+22	49
2	Derby	22	12	8	2	+20	44
3	Hull	23	13	5	5	+19	44
4	Brighton	22	11	10	1	+8	43
5	Burnley	24	11	8	5	+11	41
6	Ipswich	23	10	7	6	+3	37
7	Brentford	24	10	6	8	+3	36
8	Birmingham	24	10	6	8	+2	36
9	Sheffield Weds	23	9	8	6	+7	35
10	Cardiff	23	8	9	6	+3	33
11	Wolves	24	8	7	9	-1	31
12	Reading	24	8	6	10	+1	30
13	QPR	24	7	9	8	-2	30
14	Leeds	23	7	9	7	-2	30
15	Nott'm Forest	23	7	8	8	+1	29
16	Blackburn	23	6	10	7	+2	28
17	Preston	24	6	10	8	-2	28
18	Huddersfield	24	6	7	11	-8	25
19	Fulham	23	5	9	9	-5	24
20	Milton Keynes Dons	24	6	4	14	-12	22
21	Rotherham	23	6	3	14	-10	21
22	Bristol City	24	4	9	11	-21	21
23	Charlton	24	4	7	13	-21	19
24	Bolton	24	2	11	11	-18	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	11	9	2	0	+18	29
2	Middlesbrough	12	9	2	1	+16	29
3	Burnley	12	8	2	2	+14	26
4	Brighton	11	8	2	1	+5	26
5	Derby	12	7	4	1	+15	25
6	Sheffield Weds	11	7	3	1	+12	24
7	Cardiff	11	6	4	1	+7	22
8	Brentford	12	6	2	4	+1	20
9	QPR	12	4	7	1	+6	19
10	Reading	12	5	4	3	+6	19
11	Nott'm Forest	12	5	4	3	+5	19
12	Ipswich	12	4	5	3	+2	17
13	Birmingham	12	5	2	5	-2	17
14	Milton Keynes Dons	12	5	1	6	-2	16
15	Blackburn	11	3	6	2	+4	15
16	Huddersfield	12	4	3	5	+1	15
17	Preston	12	3	6	3	+0	15
18	Bolton	12	2	8	2	+0	14
19	Rotherham	12	4	2	6	-1	14
20	Wolves	12	3	5	4	-1	14
21	Fulham	11	3	4	4	-1	13
22	Charlton	12	3	4	5	-7	13
23	Leeds	11	3	3	5	-4	12
24	Bristol City	12	2	5	5	-7	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	11	6	2	3	+6	20
2	Ipswich	11	6	2	3	+1	20
3	Derby	10	5	4	1	+5	19
4	Birmingham	12	5	4	3	+4	19
5	Leeds	12	4	6	2	+2	18
6	Brighton	11	3	8	0	+3	17
7	Wolves	12	5	2	5	+0	17
8	Brentford	12	4	4	4	+2	16
9	Hull	12	4	3	5	+1	15
10	Burnley	12	3	6	3	-3	15
11	Blackburn	12	3	4	5	-2	13
12	Preston	12	3	4	5	-2	13
13	Fulham	12	2	5	5	-4	11
14	Cardiff	12	2	5	5	-4	11
15	Reading	12	3	2	7	-5	11
16	Sheffield Weds	12	2	5	5	-5	11
17	QPR	12	3	2	7	-8	11
18	Nott'm Forest	11	2	4	5	-4	10
19	Huddersfield	12	2	4	6	-9	10
20	Bristol City	12	2	4	6	-14	10
21	Rotherham	11	2	1	8	-9	7
22	Milton Keynes Dons	12	1	3	8	-10	6
23	Charlton	12	1	3	8	-14	6
24	Bolton	12	0	3	9	-18	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.