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Primeira Liga
Referee: Joao Carlos Santos Capela
Sp Lisbon
U T S S U
3–1
Full-time
Portimonense
T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Portimonense
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,8
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,0
1,8
Scored
1,8
0,7
Conceded
1,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,5
This season — Primeira Liga · 23/23 matches
Win Ø 48%
61%
35%
Points per game
2,0
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
65%
43%
Both score Ø 59%
65%
52%
Average goals
3,0
2,7
Scored
1,9
1,2
Conceded
1,1
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,8
-0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

59% Possession 41%
15 Shots 15
5 Shots on target 7
2 Blocked shots 2
6 Goalkeeper saves 2
8 Corners 7
1 Offside 1
20 Free kicks against 17
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sp Lisbon 4. · Portimonense 10.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Benfica 24 19 2 3 +45 59
2 Porto 24 18 3 3 +34 57
3 Sp Braga 24 16 4 4 +18 52
4 Sp Lisbon 23 14 4 5 +19 46
5 Moreirense 24 13 3 8 +2 42
6 Belenenses 24 9 9 6 +6 36
7 Guimaraes 23 10 6 7 +6 36
8 Santa Clara 24 9 4 11 +0 31
9 Rio Ave 24 7 7 10 -3 28
10 Portimonense 23 8 4 11 -7 28
11 Boavista 24 7 5 12 -11 26
12 Nacional 24 7 5 12 -22 26
13 Aves 24 7 4 13 -12 25
14 Vitoria Setubal 24 5 9 10 -6 24
15 Maritimo 23 7 3 13 -12 24
16 Tondela 24 6 5 13 -11 23
17 Chaves 24 5 5 14 -18 20
18 Feirense 24 2 8 14 -28 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sp Lisbon Portimonense
1–0 Abdoulay Diaby
Bruno Fernandes
10′
2–0 Raphinha
Bruno Fernandes
11′
Wendel 🟨
28′
30′
Paulinho 2–1
Aylton Boa Morte
36′
🔁 Ruben Fernandes
↦ Jadson
Half-time 2–1
Luiz Phellype 🔁
↦ B. Dost
59′
71′
🔁 Paulinho
↦ Tormena
I. Doumbia 🔁
↦ Raphinha
72′
Luiz Phellype 🟨
77′
81′
🔁 Ruster
↦ Bruno Tabata
84′
🟨 Henrique
Francisco Geraldes 🟨
90′
90′
🟨 Paulinho Boia
Chico Geraldes 🔁
↦ Wendel
90′
3–1 Bruno Fernandes
90′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Sp Lisbon

4-3-3
40 Renan Ribeiro G
22 J. Mathieu D
13 S. Ristovski D
3 Tiago Ilori D
86 N. Gudelj M
8 Bruno Fernandes M
37 Wendel M
28 B. Dost F
23 Abdoulay Diaby F
9 M. Acuña M
21 Raphinha M
Bench (7)
29 Luiz Phellype
98 I. Doumbia
24 Chico Geraldes
77 Jovane Cabral
19 R. Salin
6 André Pinto
26 C. Borja

Coach: M. Keizer

Portimonense

4-3-3
1 Ricardo Ferreira G
19 Henrique D
3 Lucas D
4 Jadson D
30 Tormena D
8 Paulinho M
21 Pedro Sá M
25 Lucas Fernandes M
11 Bruno Tabata M
27 Wellington Carvalho F
77 Aylton Boa Morte F
Bench (7)
26 Ruben Fernandes
98 Paulinho
33 Ruster
18 Bruno Reis
17 João Carlos
13 Felipe Macedo
22 Leonardo

Coach: António Folha

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Joao Carlos Santos Capela · 29 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
33,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,55 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.