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Premier League

Referee: Graham Scott

Liverpool

S S S S S

4–0

Full-time

Newcastle

T U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

2,7

0,8

Conceded

0,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+2,3

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 53%

83%

22%

Points per game

2,7

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 45%

39%

50%

Average goals

2,6

2,0

Scored

2,2

0,8

Conceded

0,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

75% Possession 25%

16 Shots 6

8 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 10

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 1. · Newcastle 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	15	3	0	+32	48
2	Man City	18	14	2	2	+37	44
3	Tottenham	18	14	0	4	+19	42
4	Chelsea	18	11	4	3	+20	37
5	Arsenal	18	11	4	3	+16	37
6	Man United	18	8	5	5	+4	29
7	Watford	18	8	3	7	+0	27
8	Bournemouth	18	8	2	8	-1	26
9	Wolves	19	7	5	7	-2	26
10	Leicester	18	7	4	7	+1	25
11	Everton	18	6	6	6	-2	24
12	West Ham	18	7	3	8	-2	24
13	Brighton	18	6	3	9	-6	21
14	Crystal Palace	18	5	3	10	-8	18
15	Newcastle	18	4	5	9	-8	17
16	Southampton	18	3	6	9	-14	15
17	Cardiff	18	4	2	12	-20	14
18	Burnley	18	3	3	12	-20	12
19	Fulham	19	2	5	12	-26	11
20	Huddersfield	18	2	4	12	-20	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	9	0	1	+26	27
2	Arsenal	10	7	2	1	+11	23
3	Liverpool	8	7	1	0	+16	22
4	Chelsea	10	6	3	1	+11	21
5	Everton	10	5	3	2	+3	18
6	Bournemouth	10	5	2	3	+2	17
7	Tottenham	7	5	0	2	+6	15
8	Man United	8	4	3	1	+3	15
9	Watford	9	5	0	4	-1	15
10	Brighton	8	4	2	2	+3	14
11	Wolves	10	4	2	4	-1	14
12	West Ham	10	4	1	5	-2	13
13	Cardiff	10	4	1	5	-7	13
14	Leicester	8	3	2	3	+2	11
15	Fulham	9	2	3	4	-8	9
16	Southampton	8	1	5	2	-3	8
17	Crystal Palace	8	2	2	4	-3	8
18	Burnley	8	2	1	5	-6	7
19	Newcastle	10	2	1	7	-8	7
20	Huddersfield	10	1	2	7	-10	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	11	9	0	2	+13	27
2	Liverpool	10	8	2	0	+16	26
3	Man City	8	5	2	1	+11	17
4	Chelsea	8	5	1	2	+9	16
5	Arsenal	8	4	2	2	+5	14
6	Man United	10	4	2	4	+1	14
7	Leicester	10	4	2	4	-1	14
8	Watford	9	3	3	3	+1	12
9	Wolves	9	3	3	3	-1	12
10	West Ham	8	3	2	3	+0	11
11	Newcastle	8	2	4	2	+0	10
12	Crystal Palace	10	3	1	6	-5	10
13	Bournemouth	8	3	0	5	-3	9
14	Brighton	10	2	1	7	-9	7
15	Southampton	10	2	1	7	-11	7
16	Everton	8	1	3	4	-5	6
17	Huddersfield	8	1	2	5	-10	5
18	Burnley	10	1	2	7	-14	5
19	Fulham	10	0	2	8	-18	2
20	Cardiff	8	0	1	7	-13	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.