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Serie A

Referee: Michael Fabbri

Fiorentina

U T U S S

0–1

Full-time

Parma

S T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Parma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

This season — Serie A · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 35%

35%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

35%

47%

Both score Ø 47%

53%

41%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,5

0,9

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

67% Possession 33%

34 Shots 6

8 Shots on target 2

12 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 8

9 Corners 2

0 Offside 3

16 Free kicks against 15

4 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 7. · Parma 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	17	16	1	0	+26	49
2	Napoli	17	13	2	2	+20	41
3	Inter	17	10	3	4	+15	33
4	Lazio	17	8	4	5	+5	28
5	Milan	18	7	7	4	+5	28
6	Sampdoria	17	7	5	5	+8	26
7	Fiorentina	17	6	7	4	+8	25
8	Sassuolo	17	6	7	4	+4	25
9	Atalanta	17	7	3	7	+8	24
10	Roma	17	6	6	5	+6	24
11	Torino	17	5	8	4	+2	23
12	Parma	17	6	4	7	-5	22
13	Genoa	17	5	4	8	-9	19
14	Cagliari	17	3	8	6	-7	17
15	Empoli	17	4	4	9	-11	16
16	Spal	17	4	4	9	-11	16
17	Udinese	17	3	5	9	-9	14
18	Bologna	17	2	7	8	-11	13
19	Frosinone	18	1	7	10	-24	10
20	Chievo	17	0	8	9	-20	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	9	8	1	0	+13	25
2	Napoli	9	7	2	0	+16	23
3	Inter	8	6	1	1	+12	19
4	Fiorentina	8	5	2	1	+10	17
5	Lazio	9	5	2	2	+6	17
6	Milan	9	5	2	2	+3	17
7	Roma	8	4	3	1	+8	15
8	Genoa	9	4	3	2	+3	15
9	Sampdoria	8	4	2	2	+5	14
10	Sassuolo	9	3	5	1	+2	14
11	Atalanta	8	4	1	3	+8	13
12	Parma	9	3	4	2	+1	13
13	Empoli	9	4	1	4	-1	13
14	Cagliari	8	2	5	1	+2	11
15	Torino	8	3	1	4	-2	10
16	Bologna	8	2	3	3	-2	9
17	Spal	8	2	3	3	-3	9
18	Udinese	9	2	2	5	-7	8
19	Frosinone	9	0	5	4	-10	5
20	Chievo	9	0	4	5	-10	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	8	8	0	0	+13	24
2	Napoli	8	6	0	2	+4	18
3	Inter	9	4	2	3	+3	14
4	Torino	9	2	7	0	+4	13
5	Sampdoria	9	3	3	3	+3	12
6	Sassuolo	8	3	2	3	+2	11
7	Milan	9	2	5	2	+2	11
8	Atalanta	9	3	2	4	+0	11
9	Lazio	8	3	2	3	-1	11
10	Roma	9	2	3	4	-2	9
11	Parma	8	3	0	5	-6	9
12	Fiorentina	9	1	5	3	-2	8
13	Spal	9	2	1	6	-8	7
14	Udinese	8	1	3	4	-2	6
15	Cagliari	9	1	3	5	-9	6
16	Frosinone	9	1	2	6	-14	5
17	Bologna	9	0	4	5	-9	4
18	Chievo	8	0	4	4	-10	4
19	Genoa	8	1	1	6	-12	4
20	Empoli	8	0	3	5	-10	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.