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Premier League

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Southampton

S S U S S

1–2

Full-time

Chelsea

U S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

1,3

3,2

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

0,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,8

This season — Premier League · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 37%

42%

31%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

42%

62%

Both score Ø 47%

35%

58%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

34% Possession 66%

7 Shots 16

2 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 8

5 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 7. · Chelsea 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	26	15	8	3	+19	53
2	Tottenham	26	14	9	3	+27	51
3	Arsenal	26	15	6	5	+18	51
4	Man City	26	14	5	7	+20	47
5	West Ham	27	11	10	6	+10	43
6	Man United	26	11	8	7	+9	41
7	Southampton	26	11	7	8	+10	40
8	Liverpool	26	10	8	8	+2	38
9	Watford	26	10	6	10	+1	36
10	Stoke	26	10	6	10	-5	36
11	Everton	26	8	11	7	+11	35
12	Chelsea	26	8	9	9	+2	33
13	Crystal Palace	26	9	5	12	-5	32
14	West Brom	26	8	8	10	-8	32
15	Bournemouth	26	7	7	12	-14	28
16	Swansea	26	6	9	11	-10	27
17	Norwich	26	6	6	14	-20	24
18	Newcastle	26	6	6	14	-22	24
19	Sunderland	27	6	5	16	-19	23
20	Aston Villa	26	3	7	16	-26	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	14	9	1	4	+18	28
2	Arsenal	13	8	3	2	+10	27
3	Tottenham	13	7	4	2	+14	25
4	Leicester	12	7	4	1	+8	25
5	Southampton	13	7	2	4	+10	23
6	West Ham	13	6	5	2	+7	23
7	Man United	12	6	4	2	+10	22
8	Chelsea	14	5	5	4	+5	20
9	Watford	13	5	3	5	+2	18
10	Newcastle	13	4	5	4	+2	17
11	Stoke	12	5	2	5	+0	17
12	Liverpool	12	4	5	3	-1	17
13	Swansea	14	4	5	5	-5	17
14	Everton	14	4	4	6	+4	16
15	Norwich	13	4	4	5	-2	16
16	West Brom	13	4	4	5	-3	16
17	Sunderland	13	4	3	6	+1	15
18	Crystal Palace	14	4	2	8	-4	14
19	Bournemouth	13	3	4	6	-6	13
20	Aston Villa	13	2	4	7	-10	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	14	8	4	2	+11	28
2	Tottenham	13	7	5	1	+13	26
3	Arsenal	13	7	3	3	+8	24
4	Liverpool	14	6	3	5	+3	21
5	West Ham	14	5	5	4	+3	20
6	Everton	12	4	7	1	+7	19
7	Man City	12	5	4	3	+2	19
8	Man United	14	5	4	5	-1	19
9	Stoke	14	5	4	5	-5	19
10	Watford	13	5	3	5	-1	18
11	Crystal Palace	12	5	3	4	-1	18
12	Southampton	13	4	5	4	+0	17
13	West Brom	13	4	4	5	-5	16
14	Bournemouth	13	4	3	6	-8	15
15	Chelsea	12	3	4	5	-3	13
16	Swansea	12	2	4	6	-5	10
17	Norwich	13	2	2	9	-18	8
18	Sunderland	14	2	2	10	-20	8
19	Newcastle	13	2	1	10	-24	7
20	Aston Villa	13	1	3	9	-16	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.