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Conference League
Referee: G Kabakov
West Ham
S T T S U
4–0
Full-time
AEK Larnaca
U U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

West Ham AEK Larnaca
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,2
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,3
Scored
1,3
1,0
Conceded
1,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 9/3 matches
Win Ø 67%
100%
33%
Points per game
3,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
67%
0%
Both score Ø 22%
44%
0%
Average goals
2,9
1,0
Scored
2,3
0,3
Conceded
0,6
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,8
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,77 xG 0,27
66% Possession 34%
18 Shots 7
7 Shots on target 3
5 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
1 Corners 2
1 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 6
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

9. Mar -23 AEK Larnaca – West Ham 0–2

Match report

West Ham AEK Larnaca
1–0 G. Scamacca ⚽
M. Lanzini
20′
45′
🟥 Gus Ledes
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 K. Christoforou
↦ Mikel González
2–0 J. Bowen ⚽
47′
3–0 J. Bowen ⚽
A. Cresswell
49′
M. Cornet 🔁
↦ Lucas Paquetá
55′
D. Ings 🔁
↦ G. Scamacca
55′
D. Mubama 🔁
↦ J. Bowen
55′
4–0 D. Mubama ⚽
T. Souček
65′
66′
🔁 O. Altman
↦ M. Jakoliš
66′
🔁 Rafael Lopes
↦ N. Nikolić
66′
🔁 Pere Pons
↦ Oier
Divin Mubama 🟨
67′
L. Laing 🔁
↦ K. Zouma
68′
F. Potts 🔁
↦ T. Souček
69′
81′
🔁 I. Faraj
↦ G. Naoum
Full-time 4–0

Line-ups

West Ham

4-2-3-1
13 A. Aréola G
2 B. Johnson D
4 K. Zouma D
21 A. Ogbonna D
3 A. Cresswell D
11 Lucas Paquetá M
28 T. Souček M
20 J. Bowen M
8 Pablo Fornals M
10 M. Lanzini M
7 G. Scamacca F
Bench (12)
14 M. Cornet
18 D. Ings
72 D. Mubama
53 L. Laing
62 F. Potts
47 K. Hegyi
33 Emerson
22 S. Benrahma
49 J. Anang
41 D. Rice
24 T. Kehrer
27 N. Aguerd

Coach: D. Moyes

AEK Larnaca

4-2-3-1
1 K. Pirić G
5 Ismael Casas D
3 Mikel González D
4 N. Tomović D
21 N. Englezou D
66 R. Mamas M
7 Gus Ledes M
29 G. Naoum M
6 Oier M
44 M. Jakoliš M
99 N. Nikolić F
Bench (11)
24 K. Christoforou
51 O. Altman
12 Rafael Lopes
17 Pere Pons
11 I. Faraj
10 I. Trichkovski
30 H. Andreou
15 H. Miličević
16 R. Rosales
38 I. Toumpas
40 D. Stylianidis

Coach: José Luis Oltra

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

G Kabakov · 28 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
20,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.