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Champions League
Referee: E Eskås
Milan
U U T U S
1–3
Full-time
Liverpool
S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Liverpool
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
1,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
100%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
83%
17%
Average goals
4,2
2,7
Scored
2,2
2,0
Conceded
2,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

0,61 xG 3,09
49% Possession 51%
8 Shots 23
2 Shots on target 11
2 Blocked shots 4
8 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 5
3 Offside 4
9 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Milan Liverpool
1–0 C. Pulišić ⚽
Álvaro Morata
3′
Davide Calabria 🟨
22′
23′
⚽ I. Konaté 1–1
T. Alexander-Arnold
Youssouf Fofana 🟨
31′
41′
⚽ V. van Dijk 1–2
K. Tsimikas
Half-time 1–2
L. Torriani 🔁
↦ M. Maignan
51′
53′
🟨 Alexis Mac Allister
67′
⚽ D. Szoboszlai 1–3
C. Gakpo
68′
🔁 L. Díaz
↦ C. Gakpo
68′
🔁 D. Núñez
↦ Diogo Jota
T. Abraham 🔁
↦ R. Loftus-Cheek
69′
Emerson Royal 🔁
↦ D. Calabria
70′
79′
🔁 J. Gomez
↦ T. Alexander-Arnold
80′
🟨 Ibrahima Konaté
N. Okafor 🔁
↦ Álvaro Morata
84′
M. Gabbia 🔁
↦ F. Tomori
84′
93′
🔁 W. Endō
↦ A. Mac Allister
93′
🔁 F. Chiesa
↦ Mohamed Salah
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Milan

4-2-3-1
16 M. Maignan G
2 D. Calabria D
23 F. Tomori D
31 S. Pavlović D
19 T. Hernández D
29 Y. Fofana M
8 R. Loftus-Cheek M
11 C. Pulišić M
14 T. Reijnders M
10 Rafael Leão M
7 Álvaro Morata F
Bench (11)
96 L. Torriani
90 T. Abraham
22 Emerson Royal
17 N. Okafor
46 M. Gabbia
33 D. Bartesaghi
21 S. Chukwueze
18 K. Zeroli
80 Y. Musah
42 F. Terracciano
69 L. Nava

Coach: Paulo Fonseca

Liverpool

4-2-3-1
1 Alisson Becker G
66 T. Alexander-Arnold D
5 I. Konaté D
4 V. van Dijk D
21 K. Tsimikas D
38 R. Gravenberch M
10 A. Mac Allister M
11 Mohamed Salah M
8 D. Szoboszlai M
18 C. Gakpo M
20 Diogo Jota F
Bench (12)
7 L. Díaz
9 D. Núñez
2 J. Gomez
3 W. Endō
14 F. Chiesa
62 C. Kelleher
17 C. Jones
78 J. Quansah
26 A. Robertson
80 T. Morton
56 V. Jaroš
84 C. Bradley

Coach: A. Slot

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

E Eskås · 109 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
19,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,06 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.