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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Aston Villa

U S T S U

2–2

Full-time

Liverpool

S S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 56%

40%

72%

Points per game

1,5

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

64%

Both score Ø 62%

68%

56%

Average goals

2,9

3,4

Scored

1,4

2,4

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

0,67 xG 2,50

52% Possession 48%

9 Shots 17

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 8

3 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 9. · Liverpool 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	25	18	6	1	+36	+33.8	60
2	Arsenal	25	15	8	2	+29	+19.5	53
3	Nott'm Forest	25	14	5	6	+12	+3.6	47
4	Man City	25	13	5	7	+17	+11.7	44
5	Bournemouth	25	12	7	6	+15	+15.1	43
6	Chelsea	25	12	7	6	+13	+13.8	43
7	Newcastle	25	12	5	8	+9	+10.3	41
8	Fulham	25	10	9	6	+5	+8.1	39
9	Aston Villa	25	10	8	7	-3	+6.9	38
10	Brighton	25	9	10	6	+0	-2.9	37
11	Brentford	25	10	4	11	+1	-0.3	34
12	Tottenham	25	9	3	13	+12	-0.2	30
13	Crystal Palace	25	7	9	9	-3	+1.4	30
14	Everton	25	7	9	9	-4	-5.8	30
15	Man United	25	8	5	12	-7	-3.7	29
16	West Ham	25	7	6	12	-18	-10.0	27
17	Wolves	25	5	4	16	-19	-13.9	19
18	Ipswich	25	3	8	14	-27	-28.4	17
19	Leicester	25	4	5	16	-30	-25.5	17
20	Southampton	25	2	3	20	-38	-33.3	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	12	9	2	1	+16	+14.6	29
2	Arsenal	12	8	4	0	+17	+14.4	28
3	Man City	12	8	2	2	+13	+11.6	26
4	Nott'm Forest	12	7	3	2	+12	+6.3	24
5	Aston Villa	13	6	6	1	+6	+13.5	24
6	Brentford	13	7	2	4	+4	+4.1	23
7	Chelsea	12	6	4	2	+7	+11.0	22
8	Bournemouth	12	6	3	3	+8	+9.4	21
9	Newcastle	12	6	2	4	+6	+5.2	20
10	Fulham	13	5	5	3	+1	+3.2	20
11	Brighton	12	4	6	2	+3	+3.0	18
12	Tottenham	13	5	2	6	+5	+0.9	17
13	Everton	13	4	5	4	+3	-0.3	17
14	Man United	13	5	1	7	-5	+0.3	16
15	West Ham	13	4	2	7	-11	-7.5	14
16	Crystal Palace	13	2	5	6	-9	+1.1	11
17	Wolves	12	3	1	8	-8	-4.9	10
18	Leicester	13	2	3	8	-12	-10.9	9
19	Ipswich	13	1	4	8	-17	-10.3	7
20	Southampton	12	1	1	10	-24	-19.4	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	9	4	0	+20	+19.1	31
2	Arsenal	13	7	4	2	+12	+5.1	25
3	Nott'm Forest	13	7	2	4	+0	-2.7	23
4	Bournemouth	13	6	4	3	+7	+5.8	22
5	Chelsea	13	6	3	4	+6	+2.8	21
6	Newcastle	13	6	3	4	+3	+5.0	21
7	Crystal Palace	12	5	4	3	+6	+0.2	19
8	Fulham	12	5	4	3	+4	+4.9	19
9	Brighton	13	5	4	4	-3	-5.9	19
10	Man City	13	5	3	5	+4	+0.1	18
11	Aston Villa	12	4	2	6	-9	-6.7	14
12	Tottenham	12	4	1	7	+7	-1.1	13
13	Man United	12	3	4	5	-2	-3.9	13
14	West Ham	12	3	4	5	-7	-2.5	13
15	Everton	12	3	4	5	-7	-5.5	13
16	Brentford	12	3	2	7	-3	-4.4	11
17	Ipswich	12	2	4	6	-10	-18.1	10
18	Wolves	13	2	3	8	-11	-9.0	9
19	Leicester	12	2	2	8	-18	-14.6	8
20	Southampton	13	1	2	10	-14	-13.9	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.