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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro

Farense

S T T U S

1–0

Full-time

Estrela

S U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Farense Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

4,3

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,3

3,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 14%

18%

Points per game

0,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

36%

55%

Both score Ø 41%

36%

45%

Average goals

2,1

2,7

Scored

0,5

0,9

Conceded

1,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,01 xG 0,37

41% Possession 59%

11 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 6

1 Offside 1

20 Free kicks against 19

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Farense 18. · Estrela 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	11	11	0	0	+34	+24.0	33
2	Porto	11	9	0	2	+20	+14.9	27
3	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+21	+12.8	25
4	Santa Clara	11	7	0	4	+2	+9.1	21
5	Sp Braga	11	6	2	3	+8	+5.5	20
6	Guimaraes	11	5	3	3	+1	-0.2	18
7	Famalicao	11	4	5	2	+3	-3.6	17
8	Moreirense	11	5	2	4	+1	+3.7	17
9	Casa Pia	11	3	4	4	-4	-2.4	13
10	Rio Ave	11	3	3	5	-10	-8.9	12
11	Gil Vicente	11	2	4	5	-5	-4.5	10
12	Estoril	11	2	4	5	-8	-11.8	10
13	AVS	11	2	4	5	-10	-4.7	10
14	Boavista	11	2	3	6	-8	-1.2	9
15	Estrela	11	2	3	6	-10	-7.5	9
16	Nacional	10	2	2	6	-9	-1.9	8
17	Arouca	11	2	2	7	-13	-10.4	8
18	Farense	11	1	2	8	-13	-12.8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	6	6	0	0	+19	+9.9	18
2	Porto	6	6	0	0	+15	+14.5	18
3	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+13	+10.2	15
4	Santa Clara	6	5	0	1	+3	+7.5	15
5	Moreirense	5	3	2	0	+4	+0.1	11
6	Sp Braga	6	3	1	2	+4	+5.1	10
7	Guimaraes	5	3	1	1	+0	+1.4	10
8	Rio Ave	5	2	3	0	+2	+2.8	9
9	Famalicao	6	2	3	1	+0	-1.6	9
10	Gil Vicente	5	2	2	1	+4	+1.5	8
11	Casa Pia	6	2	2	2	+0	+1.3	8
12	Estrela	6	2	2	2	-1	-1.8	8
13	Estoril	6	2	2	2	-2	-6.8	8
14	AVS	6	2	2	2	-4	-3.1	8
15	Nacional	4	2	0	2	-4	-1.4	6
16	Arouca	5	1	1	3	-4	-4.9	4
17	Farense	5	1	0	4	-7	-4.3	3
18	Boavista	5	0	1	4	-8	-0.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	6	0	0	+21	+13.8	18
2	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+4	+0.4	10
3	Porto	5	3	0	2	+5	+0.4	9
4	Famalicao	5	2	2	1	+3	-2.0	8
5	Guimaraes	6	2	2	2	+1	-1.7	8
6	Boavista	6	2	2	2	+0	-0.4	8
7	Benfica	4	2	1	1	+2	+2.8	7
8	Santa Clara	5	2	0	3	-1	+1.6	6
9	Moreirense	6	2	0	4	-3	+3.6	6
10	Casa Pia	5	1	2	2	-4	-3.7	5
11	Arouca	6	1	1	4	-9	-5.5	4
12	Rio Ave	6	1	0	5	-12	-11.7	3
13	Nacional	6	0	2	4	-5	-0.5	2
14	AVS	5	0	2	3	-6	-1.6	2
15	Farense	6	0	2	4	-6	-8.5	2
16	Estoril	5	0	2	3	-6	-4.9	2
17	Gil Vicente	6	0	2	4	-9	-6.0	2
18	Estrela	5	0	1	4	-9	-5.8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.