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Primeira Liga

Referee: Iancu Vasilica

Tondela

S S U T U

1–3

Full-time

Belenenses

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 29%

32%

26%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

45%

26%

Both score Ø 40%

48%

32%

Average goals

2,7

1,6

Scored

1,1

0,7

Conceded

1,6

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

63% Possession 37%

18 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

11 Corners 3

5 Offside 5

11 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 11. · Belenenses 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	31	24	7	0	+41	79
2	Porto	32	22	8	2	+38	74
3	Benfica	31	20	7	4	+37	67
4	Sp Braga	32	18	6	8	+19	60
5	Pacos Ferreira	32	14	8	10	+0	50
6	Guimaraes	31	12	6	13	-4	42
7	Moreirense	32	9	13	10	-8	40
8	Santa Clara	31	10	7	14	+1	37
9	Belenenses	31	8	13	10	-6	37
10	Gil Vicente	32	10	6	16	-10	36
11	Tondela	31	10	6	15	-17	36
12	Portimonense	32	9	7	16	-6	34
13	Famalicao	31	8	10	13	-9	34
14	Maritimo	32	10	4	18	-16	34
15	Rio Ave	31	6	13	12	-12	31
16	Boavista	31	6	12	13	-11	30
17	Farense	32	6	10	16	-14	28
18	Nacional	31	6	7	18	-23	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	12	3	1	+21	39
2	Sp Lisbon	15	11	4	0	+19	37
3	Benfica	16	11	3	2	+15	36
4	Sp Braga	16	10	3	3	+11	33
5	Pacos Ferreira	16	10	3	3	+6	33
6	Tondela	15	8	2	5	+0	26
7	Belenenses	16	6	5	5	-1	23
8	Portimonense	16	6	4	6	+3	22
9	Guimaraes	15	7	1	7	-3	22
10	Santa Clara	15	5	5	5	+5	20
11	Moreirense	16	3	10	3	-2	19
12	Rio Ave	16	4	6	6	-3	18
13	Maritimo	16	5	2	9	-11	17
14	Boavista	16	4	4	8	-6	16
15	Gil Vicente	16	4	4	8	-6	16
16	Famalicao	16	3	7	6	-8	16
17	Farense	16	3	6	7	-2	15
18	Nacional	15	4	3	8	-8	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	13	3	0	+22	42
2	Porto	16	10	5	1	+17	35
3	Benfica	15	9	4	2	+22	31
4	Sp Braga	16	8	3	5	+8	27
5	Moreirense	16	6	3	7	-6	21
6	Guimaraes	16	5	5	6	-1	20
7	Gil Vicente	16	6	2	8	-4	20
8	Famalicao	15	5	3	7	-1	18
9	Santa Clara	16	5	2	9	-4	17
10	Maritimo	16	5	2	9	-5	17
11	Pacos Ferreira	16	4	5	7	-6	17
12	Boavista	15	2	8	5	-5	14
13	Belenenses	15	2	8	5	-5	14
14	Rio Ave	15	2	7	6	-9	13
15	Farense	16	3	4	9	-12	13
16	Portimonense	16	3	3	10	-9	12
17	Nacional	16	2	4	10	-15	10
18	Tondela	16	2	4	10	-17	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.