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Serie A

Referee: Juan Luca Sacchi

Lecce

S U T S T

1–0

Full-time

Pisa

U S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Pisa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,5

2,0

Scored

0,5

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 14%

21%

Points per game

0,9

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

36%

Both score Ø 36%

36%

Average goals

2,1

Scored

0,7

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,20 xG 0,22

51% Possession 49%

21 Shots 5

3 Shots on target 0

7 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

12 Corners 1

1 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 17. · Pisa 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	14	9	4	1	+11	+5.6	31
2	Napoli	14	10	1	3	+10	+6.0	31
3	Inter	14	10	0	4	+19	+13.7	30
4	Roma	14	9	0	5	+7	+0.8	27
5	Bologna	14	7	4	3	+11	+4.6	25
6	Como	14	6	6	2	+8	+4.9	24
7	Juventus	14	6	5	3	+4	+6.8	23
8	Sassuolo	14	6	2	6	+2	-4.5	20
9	Cremonese	14	5	5	4	+1	-6.7	20
10	Lazio	14	5	4	5	+5	-4.0	19
11	Udinese	14	5	3	6	-7	-2.6	18
12	Atalanta	14	3	7	4	+0	+4.3	16
13	Cagliari	14	3	5	6	-5	-7.0	14
14	Genoa	14	3	5	6	-6	+2.4	14
15	Parma	14	3	5	6	-7	-4.0	14
16	Torino	14	3	5	6	-12	-5.6	14
17	Lecce	14	3	4	7	-9	-7.9	13
18	Pisa	14	1	7	6	-9	-4.3	10
19	Verona	14	1	6	7	-10	-0.4	9
20	Fiorentina	14	0	6	8	-13	-2.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	7	6	1	0	+8	+1.6	19
2	Inter	8	6	0	2	+16	+9.8	18
3	Milan	7	5	1	1	+4	+3.5	16
4	Como	7	4	3	0	+8	+3.4	15
5	Juventus	7	4	3	0	+6	+6.2	15
6	Lazio	7	4	2	1	+8	+2.5	14
7	Bologna	6	4	1	1	+6	+6.2	13
8	Roma	7	4	0	3	+3	+1.4	12
9	Atalanta	7	2	4	1	+2	+5.1	10
10	Sassuolo	7	3	1	3	+1	-1.8	10
11	Cremonese	7	2	3	2	+0	+0.4	9
12	Cagliari	7	2	2	3	-2	-3.1	8
13	Udinese	7	2	2	3	-5	+0.4	8
14	Torino	7	2	2	3	-6	-4.5	8
15	Verona	7	1	3	3	-1	+1.0	6
16	Lecce	7	1	3	3	-3	-2.6	6
17	Parma	7	1	3	3	-4	-2.4	6
18	Pisa	8	1	3	4	-4	-1.2	6
19	Genoa	7	1	3	3	-5	+1.8	6
20	Fiorentina	6	0	2	4	-5	-0.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	7	4	3	0	+7	+2.1	15
2	Roma	7	5	0	2	+4	-0.5	15
3	Bologna	8	3	3	2	+5	-1.6	12
4	Inter	6	4	0	2	+3	+3.8	12
5	Napoli	7	4	0	3	+2	+4.4	12
6	Cremonese	7	3	2	2	+1	-7.2	11
7	Sassuolo	7	3	1	3	+1	-2.7	10
8	Udinese	7	3	1	3	-2	-3.0	10
9	Como	7	2	3	2	+0	+1.5	9
10	Genoa	7	2	2	3	-1	+0.7	8
11	Juventus	7	2	2	3	-2	+0.6	8
12	Parma	7	2	2	3	-3	-1.7	8
13	Lecce	7	2	1	4	-6	-5.3	7
14	Atalanta	7	1	3	3	-2	-0.7	6
15	Cagliari	7	1	3	3	-3	-3.9	6
16	Torino	7	1	3	3	-6	-1.1	6
17	Lazio	7	1	2	4	-3	-6.5	5
18	Pisa	6	0	4	2	-5	-3.1	4
19	Fiorentina	8	0	4	4	-8	-2.0	4
20	Verona	7	0	3	4	-9	-1.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.