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La Liga

Referee: Javier Estrada

Valencia

S U T S T

2–1

Full-time

Villarreal

U U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Valencia Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,5

This season — La Liga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 28%

24%

32%

Points per game

1,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

48%

44%

Both score Ø 62%

60%

64%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,4

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

52% Possession 48%

25 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

3 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Valencia 13. · Villarreal 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	24	18	4	2	+31	58
2	Barcelona	25	16	5	4	+33	53
3	Real Madrid	25	16	5	4	+23	53
4	Sevilla	24	15	3	6	+16	48
5	Sociedad	25	11	9	5	+21	42
6	Betis	25	12	3	10	-5	39
7	Villarreal	25	8	13	4	+6	37
8	Granada	25	9	6	10	-11	33
9	Levante	25	7	11	7	+1	32
10	Ath Bilbao	24	8	6	10	+6	30
11	Celta	25	7	9	9	-7	30
12	Osasuna	25	7	7	11	-10	28
13	Valencia	25	6	9	10	-5	27
14	Getafe	25	7	6	12	-10	27
15	Cadiz	25	6	7	12	-20	25
16	Eibar	25	4	10	11	-8	22
17	Valladolid	25	4	10	11	-13	22
18	Alaves	25	5	7	13	-19	22
19	Elche	24	4	9	11	-15	21
20	Huesca	25	3	11	11	-14	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	12	9	2	1	+19	29
2	Barcelona	13	8	4	1	+19	28
3	Real Madrid	12	8	1	3	+13	25
4	Sevilla	12	8	1	3	+10	25
5	Granada	13	7	3	3	+3	24
6	Villarreal	13	5	6	2	+4	21
7	Sociedad	12	5	5	2	+12	20
8	Ath Bilbao	12	6	2	4	+9	20
9	Betis	12	6	2	4	+1	20
10	Celta	12	6	2	4	+0	20
11	Levante	13	4	7	2	+3	19
12	Getafe	13	5	3	5	+3	18
13	Valencia	12	4	5	3	+4	17
14	Osasuna	12	4	3	5	-4	15
15	Alaves	13	3	4	6	-6	13
16	Elche	12	2	6	4	-6	12
17	Huesca	12	2	5	5	-5	11
18	Valladolid	12	2	4	6	-8	10
19	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-11	10
20	Eibar	13	1	6	6	-7	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	12	9	2	1	+12	29
2	Real Madrid	13	8	4	1	+10	28
3	Barcelona	12	8	1	3	+14	25
4	Sevilla	12	7	2	3	+6	23
5	Sociedad	13	6	4	3	+9	22
6	Betis	13	6	1	6	-6	19
7	Villarreal	12	3	7	2	+2	16
8	Cadiz	12	4	3	5	-9	15
9	Eibar	12	3	4	5	-1	13
10	Levante	12	3	4	5	-2	13
11	Osasuna	13	3	4	6	-6	13
12	Valladolid	13	2	6	5	-5	12
13	Ath Bilbao	12	2	4	6	-3	10
14	Celta	13	1	7	5	-7	10
15	Valencia	13	2	4	7	-9	10
16	Huesca	13	1	6	6	-9	9
17	Elche	12	2	3	7	-9	9
18	Alaves	12	2	3	7	-13	9
19	Getafe	12	2	3	7	-13	9
20	Granada	12	2	3	7	-14	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.