Bundesliga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Dortmund
Hertha
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bayern Munich
|
30 | 22 | 4 | 4 | +60 | 70 |
| 2 |
Dortmund
|
29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | +45 | 60 |
| 3 |
RB Leipzig
|
30 | 16 | 11 | 3 | +43 | 59 |
| 4 |
M'gladbach
|
30 | 17 | 5 | 8 | +21 | 56 |
| 5 |
Leverkusen
|
30 | 17 | 5 | 8 | +16 | 56 |
| 6 |
Hoffenheim
|
30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | -8 | 43 |
| 7 |
Wolfsburg
|
29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | +5 | 42 |
| 8 |
Freiburg
|
30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | -2 | 41 |
| 9 |
Hertha
|
29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | -7 | 38 |
| 10 |
Schalke 04
|
29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | -12 | 37 |
| 11 |
Ein Frankfurt
|
30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | -6 | 35 |
| 12 |
FC Koln
|
29 | 10 | 4 | 15 | -10 | 34 |
| 13 |
Augsburg
|
29 | 8 | 7 | 14 | -16 | 31 |
| 14 |
Union Berlin
|
29 | 9 | 4 | 16 | -18 | 31 |
| 15 |
Mainz
|
30 | 9 | 4 | 17 | -23 | 31 |
| 16 |
Fortuna Dusseldorf
|
30 | 6 | 10 | 14 | -27 | 28 |
| 17 |
Werder Bremen
|
29 | 6 | 7 | 16 | -32 | 25 |
| 18 |
Paderborn
|
30 | 4 | 8 | 18 | -29 | 20 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Paderborn
Dortmund
Dortmund
Bayern Munich
Wolfsburg
Dortmund
Dortmund
Schalke 04
M'gladbach
Dortmund
H Osmers · 139 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.