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Super League
Referee: S Frappart
Xamax
U S T T T
0–1
Full-time
Lugano
U U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Xamax Lugano
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
3,0
3,8
Scored
0,5
2,2
Conceded
2,5
1,7
Goal diff per game
-2,0
+0,5
This season — Super League · 35/35 matches
Win Ø 22%
14%
29%
Points per game
0,8
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 52%
54%
49%
Both score Ø 59%
63%
54%
Average goals
2,9
2,6
Scored
0,9
1,3
Conceded
1,9
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

51% Possession 49%
17 Shots 7
3 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
8 Corners 6
12 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Xamax 10. · Lugano 6. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Young Boys 35 22 7 6 +37 73
2 St. Gallen 35 21 5 9 +25 68
3 Basel 35 18 7 10 +36 61
4 Servette 35 12 13 10 +10 49
5 Luzern 35 13 6 16 -8 45
6 Lugano 35 10 14 11 -1 44
7 Zurich 35 12 6 17 -27 42
8 Thun 35 10 7 18 -22 37
9 Sion 35 9 9 17 -16 36
10 Xamax 35 5 12 18 -34 27

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

1. Feb -20 Lugano – Xamax 1–1 7. Dec -19 Xamax – Lugano 1–1 29. Sep -19 Lugano – Xamax 0–1

Match report

Xamax Lugano
M. Oss 🟨
39′
Half-time 0–0
48′
🟨 A. Kecskes
D. Dugourd 🔁
↦ T. Seferi
60′
65′
🔁 R. Macek
↦ F. Rodriguez
70′
🟨 J. Sabbatini
72′
⚽ C. Lungoyi 0–1
T. Corbaz 🔁
↦ F. Saiz
73′
J. Djourou 🔁
↦ Y. Epitaux
73′
76′
🟨 C. Lungoyi
R. Nuzzolo 🟨
76′
L. Abanda 🔁
↦ J. Kamber
83′
L. Seydoux 🔁
↦ S. Alic
83′
92′
🔁 C. Lungoyi
↦ D. Jovanovic
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Xamax

3-1-4-2
39 Sinzig Basil G
33 Johan Djourou D
25 Mārcis Ošs D
27 Arbenit Xhemajli D
88 Freddy Mveng M
16 Léo Seydoux M
8 Samir Ramizi M
7 Thibault Corbaz M
37 Leroy Abanda M
14 Raphael Nuzzolo F
9 Dylan Dugourd F
Bench (7)
30 Laurent Walthert
2 Yoan Epitaux
3 Janick Kamber
4 Andre Neitzke
22 Safet Alić
17 Taulant Seferi
18 Fabio Saiz

Coach: J. Magnin

Lugano

4-3-1-2
1 David Da Costa G
2 Joel Untersee D
4 Ákos Kecskés D
20 Olivier Custodio D
3 Jefferson D
77 Roman Macek M
47 Ransford Selasi M
14 Jonathan Sabbatini M
22 Stefano Guidotti M
8 Christophe Lungoyi F
9 Rangelo Janga F
Bench (6)
76 Lucio Soldini
80 Noah De Queiroz
29 David Jovanović
68 Francisco Jose Rodriguez
27 Franklin Sasere
79 Florjan Seferaj

Coach: M. Jacobacci

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
–
🔒
U
–
🔒
B ✓
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Frappart · 124 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
24,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.