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Super League
Referee: F San
Lugano
U U U S U
3–1
Full-time
Servette
U T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Servette
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 83%
83%
83%
Average goals
4,2
4,2
Scored
2,2
2,0
Conceded
2,0
2,2
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,2
This season — Super League · 34/34 matches
Win Ø 31%
26%
35%
Points per game
1,2
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
47%
53%
Both score Ø 58%
53%
62%
Average goals
2,6
2,9
Scored
1,2
1,6
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,1
+0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

50% Possession 50%
7 Shots 9
2 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 0
5 Corners 2
1 Offside 0
11 Free kicks against 7
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lugano 7. · Servette 4.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Young Boys 34 21 7 6 +36 70
2 St. Gallen 34 20 5 9 +19 65
3 Basel 34 18 6 10 +36 60
4 Servette 34 12 13 9 +12 49
5 Luzern 34 12 6 16 -9 42
6 Zurich 34 12 6 16 -26 42
7 Lugano 34 9 14 11 -3 41
8 Sion 34 9 9 16 -15 36
9 Thun 34 10 6 18 -22 36
10 Xamax 34 5 12 17 -28 27

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lugano Servette
20′
K. Kone 0–1
K. Imeri
0–2 S. Rouiller
own goal
42′
Half-time 1–2
1–2 A. Gerndt
O. Custodio
50′
59′
🔁 M. Holcbecher
↦ A. Maccoppi
59′
🔁 M. Goncalves
↦ D. Iapichino
S. Lovric 🟨
63′
S. Guidotti 🔁
↦ S. Lovric
67′
70′
🔁 A. Ajdini
↦ M. Stevanović
70′
🔁 A. Guérin
↦ T. Cognat
M. Maric 🟨
76′
76′
🔁 M. Mazzolini
↦ A. Sauthier
N. Baumann 🟨
78′
R. Janga 🔁
↦ A. Gerndt
81′
2–2 M. Marić
O. Custodio
82′
88′
🟨 A. Ajdini
M. Čovilo 🔁
↦ O. Custodio
90′
Jefferson 🔁
↦ E. Yao
90′
R. Macek 🔁
↦ C. Lungoyi
91′
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Lugano

3-5-2
46 N. Baumann G
5 M. Marić D
30 F. Daprelà D
16 N. Lavanchy M
4 A. Kecskés D
18 E. Yao M
14 J. Sabbatini M
20 O. Custodio M
24 S. Lovric M
8 C. Lungoyi F
19 A. Gerndt F
Bench (7)
22 S. Guidotti
9 R. Janga
77 R. Macek
6 M. Čovilo
3 Jefferson
2 J. Untersee
1 D. da Costa

Coach: M. Jacobacci

Servette

4-4-2
1 J. Kiassumbua G
2 A. Sauthier D
21 D. Iapichino D
4 S. Rouiller D
40 N. Henchoz D
14 A. Maccoppi M
9 M. Stevanović M
8 T. Cognat F
17 K. Imeri M
39 A. Martial M
18 K. Kone F
Bench (7)
38 M. Holcbecher
15 M. Goncalves
36 A. Ajdini
44 A. Guérin
46 M. Mazzolini
32 J. Frick
37 N. Vouilloz

Coach: A. Geiger

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
U
B
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

F San · 140 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.