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Süper Lig

Referee: A Karaoğlan

Samsunspor

T S S S U

2–1

Full-time

Kayserispor

S U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Samsunspor Kayserispor

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Süper Lig · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 41%

51%

31%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

51%

49%

Both score Ø 45%

40%

49%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,1

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,81 xG 0,32

73% Possession 27%

32 Shots 8

14 Shots on target 4

8 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 12

12 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 5

5 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Samsunspor 3. · Kayserispor 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Galatasaray	36	30	5	1	+60	+40.0	95
2	Fenerbahce	36	26	6	4	+51	+45.6	84
3	Samsunspor	35	18	7	10	+13	+5.5	61
4	Besiktas	35	16	11	8	+19	+25.5	59
5	Buyuksehyr	36	16	6	14	+4	+4.7	54
6	Eyüpspor	36	15	8	13	+5	-1.4	53
7	Trabzonspor	36	13	12	11	+13	+1.1	51
8	Goztep	36	13	11	12	+9	+21.9	50
9	Rizespor	36	15	4	17	-6	+9.0	49
10	Kasimpasa	36	11	14	11	-1	+0.9	47
11	Konyaspor	36	13	7	16	-5	-3.0	46
12	Gaziantep	36	12	9	15	-5	-12.2	45
13	Alanyaspor	36	12	9	15	-7	-1.7	45
14	Kayserispor	35	11	12	12	-11	-4.1	45
15	Antalyaspor	36	12	8	16	-25	-18.4	44
16	Bodrumspor	35	9	10	16	-13	-5.0	37
17	Sivasspor	36	9	8	19	-16	-20.8	35
18	Hatayspor	36	6	8	22	-27	-37.1	26
19	Ad. Demirspor	36	3	5	28	-58	-50.3	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Galatasaray	18	15	3	0	+31	+29.6	48
2	Fenerbahce	18	14	2	2	+24	+23.0	44
3	Goztep	18	10	6	2	+20	+22.6	36
4	Trabzonspor	18	10	5	3	+18	+7.5	35
5	Besiktas	18	11	2	5	+12	+17.7	35
6	Gaziantep	18	10	4	4	+10	+0.7	34
7	Antalyaspor	18	10	4	4	+1	-2.9	34
8	Eyüpspor	18	10	3	5	+10	+4.3	33
9	Samsunspor	17	10	2	5	+10	+10.5	32
10	Konyaspor	18	9	5	4	+7	+6.2	32
11	Buyuksehyr	18	9	4	5	+11	+9.5	31
12	Rizespor	18	9	4	5	+8	+17.4	31
13	Alanyaspor	18	8	5	5	+5	+6.5	29
14	Kayserispor	18	8	5	5	+2	+3.4	29
15	Sivasspor	18	7	6	5	+7	-3.9	27
16	Kasimpasa	18	5	7	6	-2	+5.0	22
17	Bodrumspor	17	5	5	7	+0	-0.6	20
18	Hatayspor	18	4	5	9	-7	-12.2	17
19	Ad. Demirspor	18	1	3	14	-28	-16.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Galatasaray	18	15	2	1	+29	+10.4	47
2	Fenerbahce	18	12	4	2	+27	+22.6	40
3	Samsunspor	18	8	5	5	+3	-5.0	29
4	Kasimpasa	18	6	7	5	+1	-4.1	25
5	Besiktas	17	5	9	3	+7	+7.7	24
6	Buyuksehyr	18	7	2	9	-7	-4.8	23
7	Eyüpspor	18	5	5	8	-5	-5.7	20
8	Rizespor	18	6	0	12	-14	-8.4	18
9	Bodrumspor	18	4	5	9	-13	-4.4	17
10	Trabzonspor	18	3	7	8	-5	-6.4	16
11	Alanyaspor	18	4	4	10	-12	-8.2	16
12	Kayserispor	17	3	7	7	-13	-7.6	16
13	Goztep	18	3	5	10	-11	-0.8	14
14	Konyaspor	18	4	2	12	-12	-9.2	14
15	Gaziantep	18	2	5	11	-15	-12.9	11
16	Antalyaspor	18	2	4	12	-26	-15.5	10
17	Hatayspor	18	2	3	13	-20	-24.8	9
18	Sivasspor	18	2	2	14	-23	-16.9	8
19	Ad. Demirspor	18	2	2	14	-30	-34.2	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.