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Primeira Liga

Referee: Miguel Nogueira

Vizela

T S U T T

2–2

Full-time

AVS

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vizela AVS

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 1/35 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,0

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 72%

100%

43%

Both score Ø 25%

49%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

0,0

0,8

Conceded

3,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-3,0

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

74% Possession 26%

20 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 5

8 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

11 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	34	25	7	2	+61	+49.9	82
2	Benfica	34	25	5	4	+56	+47.2	80
3	Porto	34	22	5	7	+35	+23.5	71
4	Sp Braga	34	19	9	6	+25	+17.0	66
5	Santa Clara	34	17	6	11	+4	+10.8	57
6	Guimaraes	34	14	12	8	+10	+10.1	54
7	Famalicao	34	12	11	11	+5	-4.9	47
8	Estoril	34	12	10	12	-5	-13.9	46
9	Casa Pia	34	12	9	13	-5	-13.9	45
10	Moreirense	34	10	10	14	-8	-5.1	40
11	Arouca	34	9	11	14	-14	-6.8	38
12	Rio Ave	34	9	11	14	-16	-17.4	38
13	Gil Vicente	34	8	10	16	-13	-8.6	34
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	-18	-9.5	34
15	AVS	35	6	12	17	-32	-21.7	30
16	Estrela	34	7	8	19	-26	-18.0	29
17	Farense	34	6	9	19	-21	-18.8	27
18	Boavista	34	6	6	22	-35	-20.0	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	17	14	2	1	+40	+31.2	44
2	Sp Lisbon	17	14	2	1	+27	+23.8	44
3	Porto	17	13	3	1	+28	+23.3	42
4	Sp Braga	17	9	5	3	+14	+15.9	32
5	Guimaraes	17	9	5	3	+10	+9.0	32
6	Santa Clara	17	10	2	5	+4	+12.5	32
7	Famalicao	17	7	7	3	+8	+8.7	28
8	Casa Pia	17	8	4	5	+3	-1.5	28
9	Rio Ave	17	6	8	3	+1	-2.5	26
10	Moreirense	17	6	8	3	+1	-2.0	26
11	Estoril	17	7	4	6	+0	-4.2	25
12	Nacional	17	7	3	7	-4	-2.3	24
13	Arouca	17	5	6	6	-3	-3.2	21
14	Gil Vicente	17	5	5	7	-1	+0.3	20
15	Estrela	17	5	4	8	-6	-5.2	19
16	AVS	18	4	6	8	-10	-10.7	18
17	Farense	17	3	2	12	-14	-2.9	11
18	Boavista	17	1	3	13	-23	-7.0	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	17	11	5	1	+34	+26.1	38
2	Benfica	17	11	3	3	+16	+16.0	36
3	Sp Braga	17	10	4	3	+11	+1.0	34
4	Porto	17	9	2	6	+7	+0.2	29
5	Santa Clara	17	7	4	6	+0	-1.6	25
6	Guimaraes	17	5	7	5	+0	+1.1	22
7	Estoril	17	5	6	6	-5	-9.7	21
8	Famalicao	17	5	4	8	-3	-13.6	19
9	Boavista	17	5	3	9	-12	-13.1	18
10	Casa Pia	17	4	5	8	-8	-12.4	17
11	Arouca	17	4	5	8	-11	-3.6	17
12	Farense	17	3	7	7	-7	-15.8	16
13	Moreirense	17	4	2	11	-9	-3.1	14
14	Gil Vicente	17	3	5	9	-12	-8.9	14
15	Rio Ave	17	3	3	11	-17	-14.9	12
16	AVS	17	2	6	9	-22	-11.0	12
17	Nacional	17	2	4	11	-14	-7.2	10
18	Estrela	17	2	4	11	-20	-12.7	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.