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League Cup
Referee: W Finnie
Middlesbrough
S U U T T
1–0
Full-time
Wrexham
T S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Wrexham
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,5
3,2
Scored
1,5
1,2
Conceded
1,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

49% Possession 51%
13 Shots 11
3 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
7 Corners 3
0 Offside 3
10 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

2. May -26 Wrexham – Middlesbrough 2–2 25. Oct -25 Middlesbrough – Wrexham 1–1

Match report

Middlesbrough Wrexham
43′
🟨 Lewis O'Brien
Half-time 0–0
56′
🟨 Sam Smith
1–0 W. Lankshear ⚽
S. Berhalter
61′
65′
🔁 R. Longman
↦ D. Imray
G. Edmundson 🔁
↦ M. Arfsten
67′
K. Joseph 🔁
↦ J. Sarmiento
67′
Will Lankshear 🟨
69′
72′
🔁 B. Cadamarteri
↦ O. Rathbone
72′
🔁 K. Moore
↦ S. Smith
72′
🔁 B. Whiteman
↦ M. James
76′
🔁 D. Keillor-Dunn
↦ N. Broadhead
F. Cartwright 🔁
↦ W. Lankshear
80′
85′
🟨 Dominic Hyam
91′
🟨 Callum Doyle
C. Ibeh 🔁
↦ M. Whittaker
93′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Middlesbrough

4-1-4-1
31 S. Brynn G
2 C. Brittain D
12 L. Ayling D
30 Neto Borges D
17 M. Arfsten D
29 A. Malanda M
11 M. Whittaker M
6 S. Berhalter M
19 L. Castledine M
16 J. Sarmiento M
7 W. Lankshear F
Bench (9)
33 J. McLaughlin
21 S. Dieng
25 G. Edmundson
28 L. McCabe
46 F. Cartwright
44 C. Ibeh
22 K. Joseph
49 J. Dede
50 J. Daley

Coach: Kim Hellberg

Wrexham

3-5-2
21 D. Ward G
26 Z. Vyner D
5 D. Hyam D
2 C. Doyle D
30 D. Imray M
20 O. Rathbone M
37 M. James M
27 L. O'Brien M
14 G. Thomason M
28 S. Smith F
33 N. Broadhead F
Bench (9)
1 A. Okonkwo
15 G. Dobson
47 R. Longman
11 B. Cadamarteri
19 K. Moore
24 D. Scarr
8 B. Whiteman
7 D. Keillor-Dunn
4 M. Cleworth

Coach: Phil Parkinson

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

W Finnie · 35 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,06 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.