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Championship

Referee: Oliver Langford

Swansea

T T S S T

2–1

Full-time

Wrexham

S U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Wrexham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 29%

29%

Points per game

1,1

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

48%

33%

Both score Ø 60%

57%

62%

Average goals

2,4

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,04 xG 0,36

57% Possession 43%

22 Shots 5

5 Shots on target 1

9 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 7

0 Offside 4

8 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 19. · Wrexham 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	21	14	5	2	+30	+20.9	47
2	Middlesbrough	19	11	5	3	+8	+4.7	38
3	Preston	21	9	8	4	+7	-4.7	35
4	Millwall	20	10	5	5	-2	+3.0	35
5	Ipswich	21	9	7	5	+13	+16.3	34
6	Stoke	21	10	3	8	+8	-3.9	33
7	Leicester	21	8	7	6	+3	-4.6	31
8	Hull	19	9	4	6	+2	-10.2	31
9	QPR	21	9	4	8	-5	+2.4	31
10	Bristol City	21	8	6	7	+4	+1.9	30
11	Derby	21	8	6	7	+1	-4.7	30
12	Southampton	20	8	5	7	+5	+9.0	29
13	Birmingham	21	8	5	8	+4	+10.9	29
14	Watford	21	7	8	6	+2	+5.1	29
15	Wrexham	21	6	10	5	+1	-5.4	28
16	West Brom	21	8	4	9	-3	+1.9	28
17	Charlton	20	6	6	8	-6	-8.9	24
18	Sheffield United	21	7	2	12	-6	+6.4	23
19	Swansea	21	6	5	10	-7	-8.8	23
20	Blackburn	20	6	4	10	-6	+5.3	22
21	Portsmouth	20	5	5	10	-10	-5.8	20
22	Oxford	21	4	7	10	-8	-5.8	19
23	Norwich	21	4	5	12	-10	-9.1	17
24	Sheffield Weds	20	1	6	13	-25	-16.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	10	8	2	0	+19	+9.8	26
2	Middlesbrough	10	7	2	1	+6	+1.0	23
3	Ipswich	11	6	4	1	+10	+13.4	22
4	Watford	11	6	4	1	+7	+6.1	22
5	Birmingham	10	6	3	1	+13	+12.0	21
6	Hull	10	6	2	2	+3	-2.8	20
7	Stoke	10	6	1	3	+9	+1.7	19
8	West Brom	10	5	4	1	+5	+5.6	19
9	Preston	11	5	4	2	+4	-1.8	19
10	Millwall	10	6	1	3	+0	+4.2	19
11	Southampton	9	5	2	2	+6	+6.7	17
12	Wrexham	11	4	5	2	+2	+2.8	17
13	QPR	10	5	2	3	+2	+6.7	17
14	Leicester	10	4	4	2	+3	+2.6	16
15	Bristol City	11	4	3	4	+3	+1.0	15
16	Swansea	11	4	3	4	-2	-3.3	15
17	Charlton	9	4	2	3	+0	-2.2	14
18	Portsmouth	11	4	2	5	-1	+1.7	14
19	Derby	11	3	4	4	-3	-0.7	13
20	Sheffield United	10	3	2	5	+0	+7.4	11
21	Oxford	10	2	4	4	-4	+1.1	10
22	Norwich	10	2	1	7	-5	-1.2	7
23	Blackburn	10	1	3	6	-7	+3.6	6
24	Sheffield Weds	11	0	2	9	-22	-8.9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	11	6	3	2	+11	+11.1	21
2	Derby	10	5	2	3	+4	-4.0	17
3	Preston	10	4	4	2	+3	-2.9	16
4	Blackburn	10	5	1	4	+1	+1.7	16
5	Millwall	10	4	4	2	-2	-1.1	16
6	Middlesbrough	9	4	3	2	+2	+3.7	15
7	Bristol City	10	4	3	3	+1	+0.9	15
8	Leicester	11	4	3	4	+0	-7.3	15
9	Stoke	11	4	2	5	-1	-5.7	14
10	QPR	11	4	2	5	-7	-4.2	14
11	Ipswich	10	3	3	4	+3	+2.9	12
12	Southampton	11	3	3	5	-1	+2.3	12
13	Sheffield United	11	4	0	7	-6	-1.0	12
14	Hull	9	3	2	4	-1	-7.3	11
15	Wrexham	10	2	5	3	-1	-8.2	11
16	Norwich	11	2	4	5	-5	-8.0	10
17	Charlton	11	2	4	5	-6	-6.7	10
18	Oxford	11	2	3	6	-4	-6.8	9
19	West Brom	11	3	0	8	-8	-3.7	9
20	Swansea	10	2	2	6	-5	-5.5	8
21	Birmingham	11	2	2	7	-9	-1.1	8
22	Sheffield Weds	9	1	4	4	-3	-7.2	7
23	Watford	10	1	4	5	-5	-1.0	7
24	Portsmouth	9	1	3	5	-9	-7.5	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.