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Bundesliga

Referee: Sven Jablonski

Dortmund

S T S U U

2–0

Full-time

M'gladbach

S U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund M'gladbach

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 43%

57%

29%

Points per game

2,1

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

36%

57%

Both score Ø 43%

50%

36%

Average goals

2,6

2,9

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

0,9

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,43 xG 0,28

57% Possession 43%

10 Shots 6

4 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 3. · M'gladbach 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	12	2	0	+40	+30.7	38
2	RB Leipzig	14	9	2	3	+13	+8.2	29
3	Dortmund	14	8	5	1	+12	+6.8	29
4	Leverkusen	14	8	2	4	+11	+9.1	26
5	Hoffenheim	14	8	2	4	+9	+1.5	26
6	Stuttgart	14	8	1	5	+3	+0.8	25
7	Ein Frankfurt	14	7	3	4	+0	+1.4	24
8	Union Berlin	14	5	3	6	-4	-3.2	18
9	Freiburg	14	4	5	5	-2	+2.4	17
10	FC Koln	14	4	4	6	-1	-2.5	16
11	M'gladbach	14	4	4	6	-4	-1.1	16
12	Werder Bremen	14	4	4	6	-10	-8.3	16
13	Wolfsburg	14	4	3	7	-4	-3.4	15
14	Hamburg	14	4	3	7	-9	-3.1	15
15	Augsburg	14	4	1	9	-11	-10.4	13
16	St Pauli	14	3	2	9	-13	-10.2	11
17	Heidenheim	14	3	2	9	-17	-6.9	11
18	Mainz	14	1	4	9	-13	-11.8	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	7	1	0	+25	+16.9	22
2	RB Leipzig	6	6	0	0	+15	+7.3	18
3	Leverkusen	8	5	1	2	+12	+10.4	16
4	Stuttgart	6	5	0	1	+1	-1.0	15
5	Dortmund	6	4	2	0	+7	+4.5	14
6	Hamburg	7	4	1	2	+4	+2.3	13
7	Ein Frankfurt	7	4	1	2	+3	+4.2	13
8	Freiburg	7	3	3	1	+5	+6.8	12
9	Hoffenheim	7	4	0	3	+4	+0.1	12
10	Union Berlin	8	3	3	2	+2	-0.0	12
11	Werder Bremen	7	3	2	2	-4	+0.6	11
12	Augsburg	7	3	0	4	-6	-6.1	9
13	FC Koln	6	2	2	2	+4	+3.7	8
14	Heidenheim	7	2	2	3	-5	-2.5	8
15	St Pauli	7	2	1	4	-7	-3.3	7
16	M'gladbach	8	1	3	4	-9	-5.0	6
17	Wolfsburg	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.2	5
18	Mainz	7	0	2	5	-6	-3.4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+15	+13.8	16
2	Dortmund	8	4	3	1	+5	+2.2	15
3	Hoffenheim	7	4	2	1	+5	+1.4	14
4	RB Leipzig	8	3	2	3	-2	+0.9	11
5	Ein Frankfurt	7	3	2	2	-3	-2.8	11
6	M'gladbach	6	3	1	2	+5	+3.9	10
7	Stuttgart	8	3	1	4	+2	+1.7	10
8	Wolfsburg	7	3	1	3	+1	-1.2	10
9	Leverkusen	6	3	1	2	-1	-1.3	10
10	FC Koln	8	2	2	4	-5	-6.1	8
11	Union Berlin	6	2	0	4	-6	-3.2	6
12	Werder Bremen	7	1	2	4	-6	-8.9	5
13	Mainz	7	1	2	4	-7	-8.4	5
14	Freiburg	7	1	2	4	-7	-4.5	5
15	Augsburg	7	1	1	5	-5	-4.2	4
16	St Pauli	7	1	1	5	-6	-7.0	4
17	Heidenheim	7	1	0	6	-12	-4.4	3
18	Hamburg	7	0	2	5	-13	-5.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.