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Championship

Referee: A Kitchen

Middlesbrough

T S U S S

0–1

Full-time

Leeds

T S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,7

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 40/40 matches

Win Ø 51%

43%

58%

Points per game

1,5

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

48%

43%

Both score Ø 46%

53%

38%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,13 xG 1,01

53% Possession 47%

17 Shots 5

2 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 6. · Leeds 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	41	23	16	2	+43	+16.4	85
2	Leeds	40	23	13	4	+51	+46.4	82
3	Sheffield United	38	24	6	8	+23	+14.7	78
4	Sunderland	38	21	12	5	+24	+13.7	75
5	Bristol City	39	16	14	9	+10	+3.7	62
6	Middlesbrough	40	17	9	14	+12	+12.2	60
7	West Brom	41	13	18	10	+11	+11.0	57
8	Millwall	41	15	12	14	-1	+1.1	57
9	Watford	41	16	8	17	-4	-6.2	56
10	Coventry	38	16	7	15	+1	+16.9	55
11	Norwich	41	13	14	14	+6	+10.4	53
12	Blackburn	41	15	8	18	-1	-1.7	53
13	Sheffield Weds	41	14	11	16	-7	-2.4	53
14	Preston	41	10	19	12	-7	-1.8	49
15	Swansea	40	13	9	18	-10	-3.0	48
16	QPR	40	11	13	16	-8	-6.8	46
17	Portsmouth	40	12	9	19	-15	-13.9	45
18	Oxford	40	11	12	17	-16	-23.7	45
19	Hull	41	11	11	19	-9	-5.7	44
20	Stoke	41	10	14	17	-12	-15.1	44
21	Derby	41	11	9	21	-10	-7.2	42
22	Cardiff	41	9	15	17	-20	-15.4	42
23	Luton	41	10	10	21	-25	-7.3	40
24	Plymouth	40	8	13	19	-36	-36.5	37

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	20	15	4	1	+38	+28.5	49
2	Burnley	20	11	9	0	+23	+10.6	42
3	Sunderland	19	12	6	1	+17	+13.9	42
4	Bristol City	20	12	6	2	+16	+7.7	42
5	Sheffield United	19	13	2	4	+13	+14.4	41
6	Watford	21	12	3	6	+6	+0.5	39
7	Norwich	21	9	8	4	+18	+12.6	35
8	West Brom	20	9	8	3	+12	+10.6	35
9	Portsmouth	20	10	5	5	+11	+3.1	35
10	Middlesbrough	20	10	5	5	+8	+8.1	35
11	Oxford	20	10	5	5	+3	-5.3	35
12	Blackburn	21	10	4	7	+7	+5.7	34
13	Coventry	19	10	3	6	+8	+10.0	33
14	Preston	21	7	12	2	+6	+6.1	33
15	Derby	21	9	4	8	+8	+2.1	31
16	Millwall	20	9	4	7	+4	+7.0	31
17	Stoke	21	7	9	5	+4	-4.1	30
18	Swansea	20	8	5	7	+5	+6.6	29
19	QPR	20	7	7	6	+3	+3.3	28
20	Luton	20	7	7	6	+1	+6.9	28
21	Plymouth	20	7	7	6	-1	-6.1	28
22	Cardiff	20	7	4	9	-2	-0.9	25
23	Sheffield Weds	20	5	7	8	-2	+4.2	22
24	Hull	20	4	7	9	-4	+4.4	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	21	12	7	2	+20	+5.9	43
2	Sheffield United	19	11	4	4	+10	+0.3	37
3	Leeds	20	8	9	3	+13	+17.9	33
4	Sunderland	19	9	6	4	+7	-0.2	33
5	Sheffield Weds	21	9	4	8	-5	-6.5	31
6	Millwall	21	6	8	7	-5	-5.8	26
7	Middlesbrough	20	7	4	9	+4	+4.1	25
8	Hull	21	7	4	10	-5	-10.1	25
9	West Brom	21	4	10	7	-1	+0.4	22
10	Coventry	19	6	4	9	-7	+6.9	22
11	Bristol City	19	4	8	7	-6	-4.0	20
12	Blackburn	20	5	4	11	-8	-7.3	19
13	Swansea	20	5	4	11	-15	-9.7	19
14	QPR	20	4	6	10	-11	-10.1	18
15	Norwich	20	4	6	10	-12	-2.1	18
16	Watford	20	4	5	11	-10	-6.7	17
17	Cardiff	21	2	11	8	-18	-14.5	17
18	Preston	20	3	7	10	-13	-7.9	16
19	Stoke	20	3	5	12	-16	-11.1	14
20	Luton	21	3	3	15	-26	-14.2	12
21	Derby	20	2	5	13	-18	-9.4	11
22	Oxford	20	1	7	12	-19	-18.3	10
23	Portsmouth	20	2	4	14	-26	-17.1	10
24	Plymouth	20	1	6	13	-35	-30.4	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.