The model's reading of the match in plain language: expected goals, favourite probability and what the form says.
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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Burgos
Eldense
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Castellon
|
6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | +0.4 | 16 |
| 2 |
Eibar
|
6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +8 | +1.4 | 15 |
| 3 |
Mallorca
|
6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +6 | +2.5 | 13 |
| 4 |
Almeria
|
6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +6 | -1.3 | 12 |
| 5 |
Burgos
|
6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | -0.8 | 11 |
| 6 |
Sabadell
|
6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +2 | +3.5 | 11 |
| 7 |
Leganes
|
6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | -2.0 | 11 |
| 8 |
Girona
|
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | +0.9 | 10 |
| 9 |
Sp Gijon
|
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | -1.0 | 10 |
| 10 |
Las Palmas
|
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +0 | -1.8 | 10 |
| 11 |
Tenerife
|
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | -0.8 | 10 |
| 12 |
Sociedad B
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | -2.0 | 8 |
| 13 |
Oviedo
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | +3.1 | 8 |
| 14 |
Granada
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +0 | +0.1 | 8 |
| 15 |
Celta B
|
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | -2.2 | 7 |
| 16 |
Cordoba
|
6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | +1.0 | 6 |
| 17 |
Eldense
|
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | -1.9 | 5 |
| 18 |
Valladolid
|
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | -1.6 | 5 |
| 19 |
Cadiz
|
6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3 | +2.4 | 3 |
| 20 |
Andorra
|
6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -4 | +4.6 | 3 |
| 21 |
Albacete
|
6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -6 | +0.4 | 1 |
| 22 |
Ceuta
|
6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | -5.0 | 1 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Bookmaker odds fetched 7 hours ago — the market may have moved since.
Las Palmas
Burgos
Burgos
Ceuta
Oviedo
Burgos
Burgos
Sociedad B
Sp Gijon
Burgos
Not assigned yet — referee appointments are usually published in the last 24 hours before kick-off, and the referee stats will appear here then.
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.