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Ekstraklasa

Referee: M Szczerbowicz

Stal Mielec

S S U T T

2–1

Full-time

Jagiellonia

S U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stal Mielec Jagiellonia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 42%

26%

58%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

42%

53%

Both score Ø 56%

53%

58%

Average goals

2,3

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,9

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

55% Possession 45%

11 Shots 15

2 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 5

13 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stal Mielec 13. · Jagiellonia 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	19	13	2	4	+22	+11.6	41
2	Jagiellonia	19	11	5	3	+12	-0.1	38
3	Rakow	19	10	7	2	+14	+9.9	37
4	Legia	19	9	6	4	+13	+10.2	33
5	Cracovia	19	9	5	5	+8	-0.1	32
6	Gornik Zabrze	19	9	4	6	+6	+4.1	31
7	Pogon Szczecin	19	9	3	7	+5	+9.1	30
8	Motor Lublin	19	8	5	6	-3	-1.5	29
9	GKS Katowice	19	7	5	7	+3	+0.9	26
10	Piast Gliwice	19	6	7	6	+2	-2.3	25
11	Widzew Lodz	19	7	4	8	-4	-3.2	25
12	Radomiak Radom	19	6	2	11	-8	-0.6	20
13	Stal Mielec	19	5	4	10	-6	+4.6	19
14	Puszcza	19	4	7	8	-9	-10.7	19
15	Korona Kielce	19	4	7	8	-12	-4.3	19
16	Zaglebie	19	5	4	10	-12	-7.1	19
17	Lechia Gdansk	19	3	6	10	-15	-16.2	15
18	Slask Wroclaw	19	1	7	11	-16	-4.3	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	10	9	0	1	+20	+10.0	27
2	Pogon Szczecin	10	8	1	1	+11	+10.1	25
3	Jagiellonia	10	6	3	1	+11	+4.4	21
4	Legia	10	6	2	2	+11	+8.2	20
5	Gornik Zabrze	10	5	2	3	+4	+5.3	17
6	Widzew Lodz	9	5	1	3	+2	-0.6	16
7	Rakow	9	4	3	2	+6	+6.0	15
8	GKS Katowice	10	4	3	3	+4	-1.8	15
9	Stal Mielec	9	4	3	2	+3	+8.0	15
10	Motor Lublin	10	4	3	3	+0	-0.3	15
11	Cracovia	10	3	4	3	+1	+0.7	13
12	Puszcza	9	3	4	2	+0	-2.7	13
13	Zaglebie	9	4	1	4	-1	-1.8	13
14	Radomiak Radom	9	3	2	4	+2	+3.0	11
15	Piast Gliwice	9	2	5	2	+1	-1.3	11
16	Korona Kielce	9	2	2	5	-5	+1.7	8
17	Lechia Gdansk	9	2	2	5	-7	-9.6	8
18	Slask Wroclaw	10	1	4	5	-6	-1.3	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	10	6	4	0	+8	+3.9	22
2	Cracovia	9	6	1	2	+7	-0.8	19
3	Jagiellonia	9	5	2	2	+1	-4.5	17
4	Gornik Zabrze	9	4	2	3	+2	-1.2	14
5	Lech Poznan	9	4	2	3	+2	+1.6	14
6	Piast Gliwice	10	4	2	4	+1	-1.0	14
7	Motor Lublin	9	4	2	3	-3	-1.2	14
8	Legia	9	3	4	2	+2	+2.0	13
9	GKS Katowice	9	3	2	4	-1	+2.7	11
10	Korona Kielce	10	2	5	3	-7	-6.0	11
11	Widzew Lodz	10	2	3	5	-6	-2.6	9
12	Radomiak Radom	10	3	0	7	-10	-3.6	9
13	Lechia Gdansk	10	1	4	5	-8	-6.6	7
14	Puszcza	10	1	3	6	-9	-8.0	6
15	Zaglebie	10	1	3	6	-11	-5.3	6
16	Pogon Szczecin	9	1	2	6	-6	-1.0	5
17	Stal Mielec	10	1	1	8	-9	-3.4	4
18	Slask Wroclaw	9	0	3	6	-10	-3.0	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.