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Championship

Referee: R Madley

Plymouth

U S U U T

3–3

Full-time

Watford

T S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Plymouth Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

3,7

3,5

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

2,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 32%

28%

36%

Points per game

1,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

72%

52%

Both score Ø 58%

64%

52%

Average goals

3,3

2,9

Scored

1,6

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–2

1,85 xG 1,55

41% Possession 59%

31 Shots 18

11 Shots on target 5

12 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

9 Corners 5

11 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Plymouth 18. · Watford 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	25	20	2	3	+33	+22.3	62
2	Ipswich	25	16	6	3	+15	+11.2	54
3	Southampton	24	14	6	4	+14	+16.0	48
4	Leeds	24	12	6	6	+16	+18.5	42
5	West Brom	24	12	6	6	+14	+3.9	42
6	Sunderland	26	12	4	10	+8	+12.8	40
7	Hull	25	11	6	8	+6	+7.3	39
8	Bristol City	25	10	6	9	+3	+2.7	36
9	Middlesbrough	25	11	3	11	+1	+12.6	36
10	Watford	25	9	8	8	+6	+4.2	35
11	Preston	26	10	5	11	-13	-10.3	35
12	Coventry	25	8	10	7	+8	+5.6	34
13	Norwich	24	10	4	10	+1	-4.3	34
14	Cardiff	25	10	4	11	+0	-8.8	34
15	Blackburn	25	10	1	14	-9	-3.7	31
16	Millwall	25	7	8	10	-4	-5.6	29
17	Swansea	25	7	8	10	-5	-8.7	29
18	Plymouth	25	7	7	11	-2	-12.8	28
19	Stoke	25	7	7	11	-7	-2.3	28
20	Birmingham	25	7	7	11	-8	-4.2	28
21	Huddersfield	25	5	10	10	-15	-13.5	25
22	QPR	25	5	6	14	-15	-10.7	21
23	Sheffield Weds	25	5	4	16	-21	-4.8	19
24	Rotherham	25	3	8	14	-26	-27.3	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	12	10	0	2	+17	+12.1	30
2	Ipswich	13	9	3	1	+13	+12.4	30
3	Leeds	12	8	4	0	+16	+15.4	28
4	West Brom	13	8	3	2	+10	+7.1	27
5	Southampton	12	8	2	2	+14	+13.4	26
6	Sunderland	13	8	0	5	+6	+8.0	24
7	Plymouth	12	7	2	3	+11	-3.0	23
8	Hull	13	6	4	3	+8	+8.2	22
9	Coventry	13	5	7	1	+7	+5.7	22
10	Norwich	11	7	1	3	+6	+4.8	22
11	Watford	14	5	5	4	+7	+8.1	20
12	Birmingham	13	5	5	3	+3	-1.2	20
13	Cardiff	13	6	2	5	+3	-4.2	20
14	Bristol City	12	6	2	4	+3	+2.3	20
15	Preston	13	6	2	5	-6	-5.1	20
16	Middlesbrough	12	6	1	5	+2	+9.0	19
17	Rotherham	13	3	6	4	-1	-7.5	15
18	Stoke	12	4	3	5	-3	+1.8	15
19	Blackburn	12	5	0	7	-5	+0.2	15
20	Millwall	13	4	3	6	-5	-1.1	15
21	Swansea	12	3	5	4	+0	+0.6	14
22	Huddersfield	13	3	5	5	-6	-4.4	14
23	Sheffield Weds	12	3	3	6	-6	+0.3	12
24	QPR	11	2	3	6	-7	-3.2	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	13	10	2	1	+16	+10.2	32
2	Ipswich	12	7	3	2	+2	-1.2	24
3	Southampton	12	6	4	2	+0	+2.6	22
4	Middlesbrough	13	5	2	6	-1	+3.6	17
5	Hull	12	5	2	5	-2	-0.9	17
6	Sunderland	13	4	4	5	+2	+4.7	16
7	Bristol City	13	4	4	5	+0	+0.3	16
8	Blackburn	13	5	1	7	-4	-3.9	16
9	West Brom	11	4	3	4	+4	-3.2	15
10	Watford	11	4	3	4	-1	-3.9	15
11	Swansea	13	4	3	6	-5	-9.4	15
12	Preston	13	4	3	6	-7	-5.2	15
13	Millwall	12	3	5	4	+1	-4.5	14
14	Leeds	12	4	2	6	+0	+3.0	14
15	Cardiff	12	4	2	6	-3	-4.6	14
16	Stoke	13	3	4	6	-4	-4.1	13
17	Coventry	12	3	3	6	+1	-0.1	12
18	Norwich	13	3	3	7	-5	-9.2	12
19	QPR	14	3	3	8	-8	-7.5	12
20	Huddersfield	12	2	5	5	-9	-9.1	11
21	Birmingham	12	2	2	8	-11	-3.1	8
22	Sheffield Weds	13	2	1	10	-15	-5.1	7
23	Plymouth	13	0	5	8	-13	-9.9	5
24	Rotherham	12	0	2	10	-25	-19.7	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.