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Allsvenskan

Referee: Richard Sundell

Elfsborg

T U T S S

4–3

Full-time

Sirius

S S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Elfsborg Sirius

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Allsvenskan · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

50%

25%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,55 xG 1,96

49% Possession 51%

19 Shots 17

7 Shots on target 9

8 Blocked shots 3

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Elfsborg 5. · Sirius 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AIK	4	3	1	0	+3	-0.0	10
2	Hammarby	4	3	0	1	+6	+4.3	9
3	Mjallby	4	2	2	0	+5	+0.2	8
4	Malmo FF	4	2	2	0	+2	+1.6	8
5	Elfsborg	4	2	1	1	+2	+3.5	7
6	Degerfors	4	2	0	2	+3	+2.1	6
7	Norrkoping	4	2	0	2	+1	+0.8	6
8	Brommapojkarna	4	2	0	2	+0	+0.2	6
9	Hacken	4	2	0	2	-2	-2.7	6
10	Goteborg	4	2	0	2	-3	+1.5	6
11	GAIS	4	1	2	1	+1	-2.2	5
12	Djurgarden	4	1	1	2	-2	+1.6	4
13	Sirius	4	1	1	2	-3	-3.1	4
14	Oster	4	1	0	3	-1	+0.0	3
15	Halmstad	4	1	0	3	-8	-6.8	3
16	Varnamo	4	0	0	4	-4	-1.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hammarby	2	2	0	0	+6	+2.6	6
2	Norrkoping	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.3	6
3	Elfsborg	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.6	4
4	Mjallby	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.4	4
5	AIK	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.1	4
6	Malmo FF	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.3	4
7	Oster	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.7	3
8	GAIS	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.2	3
9	Goteborg	2	1	0	1	+0	+3.5	3
10	Degerfors	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.1	3
11	Brommapojkarna	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.2	3
12	Hacken	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.3	3
13	Halmstad	2	1	0	1	-4	-3.5	3
14	Djurgarden	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.6	1
15	Varnamo	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.3	0
16	Sirius	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AIK	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.2	6
2	Mjallby	2	1	1	0	+3	-1.2	4
3	Sirius	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.9	4
4	Malmo FF	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.7	4
5	Degerfors	2	1	0	1	+3	+4.2	3
6	Brommapojkarna	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
7	Hammarby	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.8	3
8	Elfsborg	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.9	3
9	Hacken	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.4	3
10	Djurgarden	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.0	3
11	Goteborg	2	1	0	1	-3	-2.1	3
12	GAIS	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.5	2
13	Oster	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.6	0
14	Varnamo	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.7	0
15	Norrkoping	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.5	0
16	Halmstad	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.