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Championship

Referee: M Donohue

Bristol City

T U T S U

4–1

Full-time

Plymouth

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bristol City Plymouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,5

3,0

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

1,7

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

1,61 xG 0,58

44% Possession 56%

17 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 1

2 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bristol City 11. · Plymouth 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Preston	6	5	1	0	+6	-0.6	16
2	Leicester	6	5	0	1	+6	+3.9	15
3	Ipswich	6	5	0	1	+5	+3.4	15
4	Norwich	6	4	1	1	+7	+4.2	13
5	Hull	6	3	2	1	+3	-2.3	11
6	Birmingham	6	3	2	1	+2	+3.7	11
7	Sunderland	6	3	1	2	+6	+4.7	10
8	Blackburn	6	3	1	2	-1	+1.1	10
9	Southampton	6	3	1	2	-5	-0.6	10
10	Leeds	6	2	3	1	+3	+2.0	9
11	Bristol City	6	2	3	1	+0	+3.2	9
12	Watford	6	2	2	2	+4	+2.2	8
13	West Brom	6	2	2	2	+1	-4.0	8
14	Plymouth	6	2	1	3	+2	-2.2	7
15	Coventry	6	1	4	1	+2	+0.6	7
16	Cardiff	6	2	1	3	+0	+1.9	7
17	Huddersfield	6	2	1	3	-4	-1.5	7
18	Millwall	6	2	1	3	-4	-5.4	7
19	Stoke	6	2	0	4	-2	+1.2	6
20	QPR	6	2	0	4	-5	-5.6	6
21	Rotherham	6	1	1	4	-6	-7.2	4
22	Swansea	6	0	2	4	-5	-0.8	2
23	Sheffield Weds	6	0	1	5	-6	-4.9	1
24	Middlesbrough	6	0	1	5	-9	+2.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Norwich	3	3	0	0	+4	+3.5	9
2	Preston	3	3	0	0	+3	-0.6	9
3	Watford	4	2	1	1	+5	+3.2	7
4	Birmingham	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.3	7
5	Sunderland	3	2	0	1	+5	+2.4	6
6	Plymouth	3	2	0	1	+4	-0.9	6
7	West Brom	3	2	0	1	+2	-1.6	6
8	Ipswich	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.9	6
9	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.9	6
10	Cardiff	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.8	6
11	Blackburn	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.2	6
12	Leicester	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.4	6
13	Coventry	3	1	2	0	+3	+1.1	5
14	Hull	3	1	2	0	+2	+0.3	5
15	Rotherham	3	1	1	1	+0	-3.4	4
16	Southampton	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.1	4
17	Leeds	3	0	3	0	+0	+1.9	3
18	Huddersfield	3	1	0	2	-3	-0.4	3
19	Millwall	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.3	3
20	Swansea	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.4	2
21	Bristol City	3	0	2	1	-2	-0.3	2
22	Middlesbrough	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.9	1
23	Sheffield Weds	3	0	0	3	-3	-2.0	0
24	QPR	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.5	9
2	Ipswich	3	3	0	0	+3	+0.6	9
3	Preston	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.0	7
4	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.5	7
5	Leeds	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.1	6
6	Hull	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.6	6
7	QPR	4	2	0	2	-2	-3.5	6
8	Southampton	3	2	0	1	-3	+0.5	6
9	Norwich	3	1	1	1	+3	+0.7	4
10	Sunderland	3	1	1	1	+1	+2.3	4
11	Birmingham	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.4	4
12	Huddersfield	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.1	4
13	Millwall	3	1	1	1	-1	-2.1	4
14	Blackburn	3	1	1	1	-2	+1.3	4
15	Coventry	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.5	2
16	West Brom	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.3	2
17	Watford	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.1	1
18	Cardiff	3	0	1	2	-2	-0.9	1
19	Plymouth	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.3	1
20	Sheffield Weds	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.9	1
21	Swansea	3	0	0	3	-4	-0.4	0
22	Stoke	3	0	0	3	-4	-0.7	0
23	Middlesbrough	3	0	0	3	-6	+1.9	0
24	Rotherham	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.