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Championship

Referee: G Eltringham

Luton

U T S S U

1–0

Full-time

Cardiff

T U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,8

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,8

This season — Championship · 26/28 matches

Win Ø 34%

42%

25%

Points per game

1,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

42%

29%

Both score Ø 41%

46%

36%

Average goals

2,4

1,9

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

64% Possession 36%

15 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

13 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 9. · Cardiff 21. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	28	18	8	2	+29	62
2	Sheffield United	28	17	6	5	+24	57
3	Middlesbrough	28	13	6	9	+10	45
4	Watford	29	12	8	9	+3	44
5	Blackburn	28	14	1	13	-4	43
6	Norwich	28	12	6	10	+9	42
7	Millwall	27	12	6	9	+6	42
8	West Brom	28	11	8	9	+8	41
9	Luton	26	11	8	7	+6	41
10	Sunderland	27	11	7	9	+9	40
11	Preston	28	11	7	10	-5	40
12	Swansea	28	10	9	9	+2	39
13	QPR	29	10	8	11	-6	38
14	Hull	29	10	7	12	-8	37
15	Reading	28	11	4	13	-11	37
16	Coventry	27	9	8	10	-1	35
17	Bristol City	28	8	9	11	-1	33
18	Stoke	28	9	6	13	-4	33
19	Birmingham	28	8	8	12	-5	32
20	Rotherham	28	7	10	11	-7	31
21	Cardiff	28	7	8	13	-10	29
22	Huddersfield	27	7	5	15	-10	26
23	Blackpool	27	6	8	13	-12	26
24	Wigan	28	6	7	15	-22	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	15	11	4	0	+20	37
2	Sheffield United	14	9	3	2	+17	30
3	Millwall	13	8	3	2	+12	27
4	Blackburn	13	9	0	4	+7	27
5	Middlesbrough	14	7	5	2	+8	26
6	Reading	13	8	2	3	+6	26
7	Watford	14	7	3	4	+7	24
8	West Brom	14	6	4	4	+6	22
9	Coventry	14	6	4	4	+4	22
10	Swansea	13	6	2	5	+4	20
11	Rotherham	13	5	4	4	+7	19
12	Norwich	14	5	4	5	+3	19
13	Sunderland	14	5	4	5	+3	19
14	Bristol City	15	5	4	6	+2	19
15	QPR	14	5	4	5	-1	19
16	Hull	15	5	3	7	-6	18
17	Birmingham	15	4	5	6	+0	17
18	Huddersfield	14	5	2	7	-1	17
19	Cardiff	15	4	5	6	-2	17
20	Luton	12	3	6	3	+2	15
21	Stoke	14	4	3	7	-1	15
22	Preston	14	3	4	7	-10	13
23	Blackpool	13	3	3	7	-5	12
24	Wigan	15	2	3	10	-19	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	14	8	3	3	+7	27
2	Preston	14	8	3	3	+5	27
3	Luton	14	8	2	4	+4	26
4	Burnley	13	7	4	2	+9	25
5	Norwich	14	7	2	5	+6	23
6	Sunderland	13	6	3	4	+6	21
7	Watford	15	5	5	5	-4	20
8	Middlesbrough	14	6	1	7	+2	19
9	West Brom	14	5	4	5	+2	19
10	Swansea	15	4	7	4	-2	19
11	Hull	14	5	4	5	-2	19
12	QPR	15	5	4	6	-5	19
13	Stoke	14	5	3	6	-3	18
14	Wigan	13	4	4	5	-3	16
15	Blackburn	15	5	1	9	-11	16
16	Birmingham	13	4	3	6	-5	15
17	Millwall	14	4	3	7	-6	15
18	Bristol City	13	3	5	5	-3	14
19	Blackpool	14	3	5	6	-7	14
20	Coventry	13	3	4	6	-5	13
21	Cardiff	13	3	3	7	-8	12
22	Rotherham	15	2	6	7	-14	12
23	Reading	15	3	2	10	-17	11
24	Huddersfield	13	2	3	8	-9	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.