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Serie B

Referee: F Dionisi

Monza

U U U S S

1–0

Full-time

Modena

S T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monza Modena

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,0

3,2

Scored

1,7

Conceded

0,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 50%

60%

40%

Points per game

2,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

46%

51%

Both score Ø 50%

49%

51%

Average goals

2,4

2,3

Scored

1,6

1,3

Conceded

0,8

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,43 xG 0,94

41% Possession 59%

10 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 20

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monza 3. · Modena 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	35	22	9	4	+42	+32.6	75
2	Frosinone	35	20	12	3	+33	+10.4	72
3	Monza	35	21	9	5	+29	+16.5	72
4	Palermo	35	19	11	5	+29	+11.5	68
5	Catanzaro	35	14	14	7	+11	-0.0	56
6	Modena	35	14	10	11	+14	+6.7	52
7	Juve Stabia	35	11	16	8	+0	-0.4	49
8	Cesena	35	12	8	15	-10	+3.7	44
9	Carrarese	35	10	13	12	-1	-5.4	43
10	Avellino	35	11	10	14	-14	-15.1	43
11	Sudtirol	35	8	16	11	-6	-5.5	40
12	Mantova	35	11	7	17	-11	+1.0	40
13	Padova	35	10	10	15	-11	-11.8	40
14	Sampdoria	35	10	10	15	-13	-2.1	40
15	Empoli	35	8	13	14	-6	+3.7	37
16	Virtus Entella	35	8	12	15	-15	-9.8	36
17	Bari	35	8	10	17	-23	-21.5	34
18	Pescara	35	7	12	16	-14	-3.4	33
19	Spezia	35	8	9	18	-14	-0.5	33
20	Reggiana	35	8	9	18	-20	-10.6	33

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	17	15	0	2	+28	+18.5	45
2	Palermo	18	13	4	1	+25	+9.1	43
3	Monza	17	13	3	1	+21	+12.6	42
4	Frosinone	17	10	5	2	+19	+8.4	35
5	Juve Stabia	18	8	9	1	+11	+5.2	33
6	Catanzaro	17	8	8	1	+10	+2.5	32
7	Sampdoria	18	8	5	5	+1	+2.6	29
8	Modena	18	8	4	6	+10	+0.8	28
9	Carrarese	18	7	7	4	+9	+4.2	28
10	Virtus Entella	17	7	7	3	+7	-1.4	28
11	Mantova	18	8	3	7	-2	+5.5	27
12	Avellino	17	7	5	5	-2	-4.7	26
13	Empoli	18	4	11	3	+6	+8.2	23
14	Cesena	17	6	5	6	+0	+5.4	23
15	Bari	18	6	5	7	-4	-8.9	23
16	Padova	18	5	7	6	-2	-4.9	22
17	Sudtirol	17	5	6	6	+1	-2.3	21
18	Reggiana	17	5	6	6	-3	-4.7	21
19	Pescara	17	5	5	7	+2	-1.4	20
20	Spezia	18	5	5	8	-3	+4.0	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	18	10	7	1	+14	+2.0	37
2	Venezia	18	7	9	2	+14	+14.1	30
3	Monza	18	8	6	4	+8	+3.9	30
4	Palermo	17	6	7	4	+4	+2.4	25
5	Modena	17	6	6	5	+4	+5.9	24
6	Catanzaro	18	6	6	6	+1	-2.5	24
7	Cesena	18	6	3	9	-10	-1.6	21
8	Sudtirol	18	3	10	5	-7	-3.2	19
9	Padova	17	5	3	9	-9	-6.9	18
10	Avellino	18	4	5	9	-12	-10.4	17
11	Juve Stabia	17	3	7	7	-11	-5.6	16
12	Carrarese	17	3	6	8	-10	-9.5	15
13	Empoli	17	4	2	11	-12	-4.5	14
14	Mantova	17	3	4	10	-9	-4.5	13
15	Spezia	17	3	4	10	-11	-4.5	13
16	Pescara	18	2	7	9	-16	-2.0	13
17	Reggiana	18	3	3	12	-17	-6.0	12
18	Sampdoria	17	2	5	10	-14	-4.7	11
19	Bari	17	2	5	10	-19	-12.6	11
20	Virtus Entella	18	1	5	12	-22	-8.5	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.