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Ligue 2

Referee: R Buquet

Metz

U S S U S

3–2

Full-time

Bastia

U T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Metz Bastia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

2,3

3,3

Scored

1,7

2,0

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,7

This season — Ligue 2 · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 49%

51%

46%

Points per game

1,9

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 35%

35%

Both score Ø 43%

43%

Average goals

2,4

2,5

Scored

1,6

1,4

Conceded

0,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

44% Possession 56%

14 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Metz 2. · Bastia 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Le Havre	37	19	15	3	+26	72
2	Metz	37	19	12	6	+27	69
3	Bordeaux	37	20	9	8	+24	69
4	Bastia	37	17	9	11	+8	60
5	Caen	37	16	11	10	+10	59
6	St Etienne	37	14	11	12	+4	53
7	Sochaux	37	15	7	15	+15	52
8	Guingamp	37	14	10	13	+3	52
9	Paris FC	37	14	10	13	+1	52
10	Grenoble	37	14	9	14	-1	51
11	Quevilly Rouen	37	12	13	12	-2	49
12	Amiens	37	13	8	16	-11	47
13	Valenciennes	37	10	15	12	-5	45
14	Annecy	37	11	12	14	-11	45
15	Pau FC	37	11	11	15	-13	44
16	Rodez	37	10	13	14	-6	43
17	Laval	37	13	4	20	-13	43
18	Dijon	37	10	12	15	-4	42
19	Nimes	37	9	6	22	-20	33
20	Niort	37	7	7	23	-32	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bordeaux	18	12	4	2	+19	40
2	Caen	19	11	6	2	+16	39
3	Le Havre	18	10	7	1	+13	37
4	Bastia	19	11	4	4	+11	37
5	Metz	18	9	7	2	+12	34
6	Grenoble	18	9	5	4	+5	32
7	Sochaux	19	9	4	6	+13	31
8	St Etienne	18	9	4	5	+5	31
9	Annecy	19	9	4	6	+0	31
10	Valenciennes	19	6	11	2	+4	29
11	Laval	19	9	2	8	+3	29
12	Dijon	19	7	7	5	+4	28
13	Quevilly Rouen	19	6	9	4	+4	27
14	Amiens	18	8	3	7	-1	27
15	Nimes	18	8	2	8	+2	26
16	Guingamp	19	7	4	8	+2	25
17	Paris FC	18	7	3	8	+1	24
18	Pau FC	18	5	6	7	-8	21
19	Rodez	19	4	7	8	-9	19
20	Niort	18	5	3	10	-12	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Metz	19	10	5	4	+15	35
2	Le Havre	19	9	8	2	+13	35
3	Bordeaux	19	8	5	6	+5	29
4	Paris FC	19	7	7	5	+0	28
5	Guingamp	18	7	6	5	+1	27
6	Rodez	18	6	6	6	+3	24
7	Bastia	18	6	5	7	-3	23
8	Pau FC	19	6	5	8	-5	23
9	St Etienne	19	5	7	7	-1	22
10	Quevilly Rouen	18	6	4	8	-6	22
11	Sochaux	18	6	3	9	+2	21
12	Caen	18	5	5	8	-6	20
13	Amiens	19	5	5	9	-10	20
14	Grenoble	19	5	4	10	-6	19
15	Valenciennes	18	4	4	10	-9	16
16	Dijon	18	3	5	10	-8	14
17	Annecy	18	2	8	8	-11	14
18	Laval	18	4	2	12	-16	14
19	Niort	19	2	4	13	-20	10
20	Nimes	19	1	4	14	-22	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.