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Championship

Referee: J Busby

Reading

U T S U T

2–2

Full-time

Derby

T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Reading Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,3

1,5

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

This season — Championship · 23/25 matches

Win Ø 34%

39%

28%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

52%

36%

Both score Ø 55%

57%

52%

Average goals

2,8

1,8

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

30% Possession 70%

9 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 10

0 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Reading 19. · Derby 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bournemouth	26	14	8	4	+21	50
2	Blackburn	26	14	7	5	+19	49
3	Fulham	24	14	6	4	+33	48
4	West Brom	26	12	9	5	+13	45
5	Middlesbrough	26	12	6	8	+7	42
6	QPR	25	12	5	8	+6	41
7	Huddersfield	25	11	7	7	+5	40
8	Stoke	24	11	5	8	+6	38
9	Coventry	24	10	7	7	+5	37
10	Blackpool	27	10	6	11	-3	36
11	Sheffield United	22	10	4	8	+5	34
12	Nott'm Forest	24	9	6	9	+4	33
13	Millwall	25	8	9	8	-1	33
14	Bristol City	26	9	6	11	-8	33
15	Luton	22	8	7	7	+7	31
16	Derby	25	7	10	8	-2	31
17	Preston	23	8	7	8	-3	31
18	Swansea	23	8	6	9	-2	30
19	Reading	23	9	3	11	-5	30
20	Birmingham	25	7	6	12	-12	27
21	Cardiff	25	6	6	13	-17	24
22	Hull	25	6	5	14	-10	23
23	Peterboro	23	5	4	14	-24	19
24	Peterborough	23	5	4	14	-24	19
25	Barnsley	25	2	9	14	-20	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	15	10	3	2	+17	33
2	Coventry	13	8	2	3	+12	26
3	West Brom	12	7	5	0	+12	26
4	Middlesbrough	14	8	2	4	+8	26
5	Fulham	12	7	3	2	+16	24
6	Bournemouth	12	7	3	2	+13	24
7	Stoke	13	7	3	3	+7	24
8	Huddersfield	11	7	2	2	+6	23
9	Blackpool	15	7	2	6	-1	23
10	Preston	12	6	4	2	+4	22
11	QPR	12	6	3	3	+5	21
12	Derby	12	5	5	2	+3	20
13	Swansea	12	5	4	3	+5	19
14	Millwall	11	5	4	2	+3	19
15	Luton	11	5	3	3	+7	18
16	Reading	12	5	3	4	+2	18
17	Sheffield United	11	5	2	4	+8	17
18	Nott'm Forest	13	5	2	6	-1	17
19	Bristol City	14	4	5	5	-2	17
20	Peterboro	11	4	4	3	+3	16
21	Peterborough	11	4	4	3	+3	16
22	Birmingham	12	4	3	5	-3	15
23	Hull	12	3	3	6	-4	12
24	Barnsley	12	2	4	6	-7	10
25	Cardiff	11	2	1	8	-9	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bournemouth	14	7	5	2	+8	26
2	Fulham	12	7	3	2	+17	24
3	QPR	13	6	2	5	+1	20
4	West Brom	14	5	4	5	+1	19
5	Huddersfield	14	4	5	5	-1	17
6	Sheffield United	11	5	2	4	-3	17
7	Cardiff	14	4	5	5	-8	17
8	Nott'm Forest	11	4	4	3	+5	16
9	Blackburn	11	4	4	3	+2	16
10	Middlesbrough	12	4	4	4	-1	16
11	Bristol City	12	5	1	6	-6	16
12	Stoke	11	4	2	5	-1	14
13	Millwall	14	3	5	6	-4	14
14	Luton	11	3	4	4	+0	13
15	Blackpool	12	3	4	5	-2	13
16	Reading	11	4	0	7	-7	12
17	Birmingham	13	3	3	7	-9	12
18	Derby	13	2	5	6	-5	11
19	Hull	13	3	2	8	-6	11
20	Swansea	11	3	2	6	-7	11
21	Coventry	11	2	5	4	-7	11
22	Preston	11	2	3	6	-7	9
23	Barnsley	13	0	5	8	-13	5
24	Peterboro	12	1	0	11	-27	3
25	Peterborough	12	1	0	11	-27	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.