Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Monza
Reggiana
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Empoli
|
28 | 13 | 14 | 1 | +27 | 53 |
| 2 |
Lecce
|
29 | 12 | 13 | 4 | +19 | 49 |
| 3 |
Monza
|
28 | 12 | 11 | 5 | +15 | 47 |
| 4 |
Salernitana
|
28 | 12 | 11 | 5 | +4 | 47 |
| 5 |
Venezia
|
29 | 12 | 10 | 7 | +9 | 46 |
| 6 |
Cittadella
|
28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | +13 | 44 |
| 7 |
Chievo
|
28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | +9 | 42 |
| 8 |
Spal
|
29 | 10 | 12 | 7 | +2 | 42 |
| 9 |
Pisa
|
29 | 9 | 13 | 7 | -1 | 40 |
| 10 |
Frosinone
|
28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | -5 | 37 |
| 11 |
Brescia
|
28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 36 |
| 12 |
Reggina
|
28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | -4 | 36 |
| 13 |
Vicenza
|
29 | 7 | 14 | 8 | -1 | 35 |
| 14 |
Cremonese
|
29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -1 | 35 |
| 15 | Pordenone | 28 | 7 | 13 | 8 | +1 | 34 |
| 16 |
Cosenza
|
29 | 4 | 16 | 9 | -6 | 28 |
| 17 |
Reggiana
|
28 | 8 | 4 | 16 | -20 | 28 |
| 18 |
Ascoli
|
28 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -15 | 24 |
| 19 |
Pescara
|
28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -23 | 23 |
| 20 |
Virtus Entella
|
29 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -22 | 21 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Reggina
Monza
Monza
Frosinone
Monza
Monza
Cittadella
Chievo
Monza
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.