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Championship

Referee: A Davies

Watford

S S U U T

3–2

Full-time

Stoke

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,3

This season — Championship · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 44%

44%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

11%

22%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,4

2,1

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

0,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

66% Possession 34%

12 Shots 5

3 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 1

1 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 8. · Stoke 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reading	9	7	1	1	+11	22
2	Swansea	9	5	3	1	+7	18
3	Norwich	10	5	3	2	+4	18
4	Bournemouth	10	4	5	1	+4	17
5	Middlesbrough	10	4	5	1	+4	17
6	Bristol City	10	5	2	3	+3	17
7	Millwall	10	4	4	2	+2	16
8	Watford	9	4	3	2	+3	15
9	Stoke	9	4	3	2	+1	15
10	Brentford	9	4	2	3	+5	14
11	Cardiff	10	3	4	3	+2	13
12	Birmingham	9	3	4	2	+1	13
13	Huddersfield	10	4	1	5	-1	13
14	Luton	9	4	1	4	-3	13
15	Blackburn	10	3	2	5	+5	11
16	Sheffield Weds	10	3	2	5	-4	11
17	Preston	9	3	1	5	-1	10
18	Barnsley	10	2	4	4	-3	10
19	QPR	9	2	4	3	-3	10
20	Rotherham	9	2	3	4	-2	9
21	Coventry	9	2	2	5	-9	8
22	Nott'm Forest	9	1	3	5	-6	6
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	-8	6
24	Wycombe	9	1	1	7	-12	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reading	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	Middlesbrough	5	3	2	0	+4	11
3	Bournemouth	5	3	2	0	+3	11
4	Swansea	5	3	1	1	+4	10
5	Watford	4	3	1	0	+4	10
6	Barnsley	5	2	2	1	+3	8
7	QPR	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	Norwich	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Stoke	5	2	2	1	+0	8
10	Brentford	4	2	1	1	+3	7
11	Birmingham	4	2	1	1	+1	7
12	Bristol City	5	2	1	2	+0	7
13	Luton	5	2	1	2	-2	7
14	Coventry	5	2	1	2	-4	7
15	Millwall	5	1	3	1	-1	6
16	Huddersfield	5	2	0	3	-1	6
17	Blackburn	5	1	2	2	+2	5
18	Cardiff	5	1	2	2	+0	5
19	Sheffield Weds	5	1	2	2	-1	5
20	Rotherham	4	1	1	2	+1	4
21	Wycombe	5	1	1	3	-3	4
22	Nott'm Forest	4	0	2	2	-3	2
23	Derby	4	0	1	3	-7	1
24	Preston	5	0	0	5	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Reading	5	3	1	1	+4	10
3	Bristol City	5	3	1	1	+3	10
4	Norwich	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Millwall	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Swansea	4	2	2	0	+3	8
7	Cardiff	5	2	2	1	+2	8
8	Brentford	5	2	1	2	+2	7
9	Stoke	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Huddersfield	5	2	1	2	+0	7
11	Blackburn	5	2	0	3	+3	6
12	Bournemouth	5	1	3	1	+1	6
13	Birmingham	5	1	3	1	+0	6
14	Middlesbrough	5	1	3	1	+0	6
15	Luton	4	2	0	2	-1	6
16	Sheffield Weds	5	2	0	3	-3	6
17	Derby	5	1	2	2	-1	5
18	Watford	5	1	2	2	-1	5
19	Rotherham	5	1	2	2	-3	5
20	Nott'm Forest	5	1	1	3	-3	4
21	QPR	4	0	2	2	-4	2
22	Barnsley	5	0	2	3	-6	2
23	Coventry	4	0	1	3	-5	1
24	Wycombe	4	0	0	4	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.