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Championship

Referee: C Kavanagh

Brentford

S S T T T

3–1

Full-time

Swansea

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,0

This season — Championship · 44/45 matches

Win Ø 45%

48%

42%

Points per game

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

48%

47%

Both score Ø 50%

43%

56%

Average goals

2,5

2,4

Scored

1,7

1,4

Conceded

0,9

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

43% Possession 57%

19 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 2

4 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brentford 5. · Swansea 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	46	28	9	9	+42	93
2	West Brom	46	22	17	7	+32	83
3	Fulham	44	23	11	10	+17	80
4	Swansea	45	19	16	10	+15	73
5	Brentford	44	21	9	14	+35	72
6	Cardiff	45	19	15	11	+10	72
7	Nott'm Forest	46	18	16	12	+8	70
8	Millwall	46	17	17	12	+6	68
9	Preston	46	18	12	16	+5	66
10	Derby	46	17	13	16	-2	64
11	Blackburn	46	17	12	17	+3	63
12	Bristol City	46	17	12	17	-5	63
13	Wigan	46	15	14	17	+1	59
14	QPR	46	16	10	20	-9	58
15	Reading	46	15	11	20	+1	56
16	Stoke	46	16	8	22	-6	56
17	Sheffield Weds	46	15	11	20	-8	56
18	Middlesbrough	46	13	14	19	-13	53
19	Huddersfield	46	13	12	21	-18	51
20	Luton	46	14	9	23	-28	51
21	Birmingham	46	12	14	20	-21	50
22	Barnsley	46	12	13	21	-20	49
23	Charlton	46	12	12	22	-15	48
24	Hull	46	12	9	25	-30	45

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	23	15	5	3	+26	50
2	Fulham	22	14	2	6	+12	44
3	Brentford	21	12	5	4	+23	41
4	Cardiff	23	11	8	4	+12	41
5	Derby	23	11	8	4	+12	41
6	West Brom	23	10	10	3	+17	40
7	Preston	23	12	4	7	+10	40
8	Blackburn	23	10	9	4	+9	39
9	Millwall	23	10	8	5	+8	38
10	Swansea	23	11	5	7	+8	38
11	Wigan	23	10	7	6	+10	37
12	Stoke	23	11	3	9	+10	36
13	Nott'm Forest	23	10	5	8	+0	35
14	QPR	23	9	5	9	+0	32
15	Bristol City	23	8	7	8	-3	31
16	Luton	23	8	7	8	-4	31
17	Charlton	23	8	6	9	+1	30
18	Barnsley	23	7	9	7	-4	30
19	Huddersfield	23	8	6	9	-4	30
20	Sheffield Weds	23	7	7	9	-11	28
21	Middlesbrough	23	6	8	9	-9	26
22	Reading	23	7	4	12	-8	25
23	Birmingham	23	6	7	10	-9	25
24	Hull	23	7	3	13	-8	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	23	13	4	6	+16	43
2	West Brom	23	12	7	4	+15	43
3	Fulham	22	9	9	4	+5	36
4	Nott'm Forest	23	8	11	4	+8	35
5	Swansea	22	8	11	3	+7	35
6	Bristol City	23	9	5	9	-2	32
7	Brentford	23	9	4	10	+12	31
8	Reading	23	8	7	8	+9	31
9	Cardiff	22	8	7	7	-2	31
10	Millwall	23	7	9	7	-2	30
11	Sheffield Weds	23	8	4	11	+3	28
12	Middlesbrough	23	7	6	10	-4	27
13	Preston	23	6	8	9	-5	26
14	QPR	23	7	5	11	-9	26
15	Birmingham	23	6	7	10	-12	25
16	Blackburn	23	7	3	13	-6	24
17	Derby	23	6	5	12	-14	23
18	Wigan	23	5	7	11	-9	22
19	Huddersfield	23	5	6	12	-14	21
20	Hull	23	5	6	12	-22	21
21	Stoke	23	5	5	13	-16	20
22	Luton	23	6	2	15	-24	20
23	Barnsley	23	5	4	14	-16	19
24	Charlton	23	4	6	13	-16	18

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.